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HomeMy WebLinkAboutCarmel Positioning StrategyECONorthwest i City of Carmel Positioning Strategy Final Report November 2023 Prepared for: City of Carmel ECONorthwest ii This page intentionally blank ECONorthwest iii Acknowledgements ECONorthwest prepared this report for the City of Carmel. ECONorthwest and the City of Carmel thank those who helped develop this Positioning Strategy. City of Carmel ▪ Adrienne Keeling, Planning Administrator ▪ Mike Hollibaugh, Director of Community Services Consulting Team (ECONorthwest) ▪ Tyler Bump, Project Director ▪ Kryn Sausedo, Senior Project Manager ▪ Oscar Saucedo-Andrade, Technical Manager ▪ Mary Chase, Associate ECONorthwest iv Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ........................................................................................................................... 1 2. NATIONAL TRENDS ............................................................................................................................................... 2 REMOTE WORK HAS CHANGED THE OFFICE LANDSCAPE THROUGH A ‘FLIGHT TO QUALITY.’..................................................... 2 BRICK-AND-MORTAR RETAIL IS ADAPTING TO CHANGING DEMAND FOR IN-PERSON SHOPPING. ............................................... 5 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE DRIVING NEW TYPES OF HOUSING NEEDS AND PREFERENCES. .................................................. 5 3. REGIONAL TRENDS............................................................................................................................................... 8 REGIONAL CONTEXT .................................................................................................................................................... 8 THE INDIANAPOLIS OFFICE MARKET IS CHANGING FROM ITS DOWNTOWN-CENTERED DYNAMIC. ................................................. 9 RETAIL DEMAND IS CHANGING FOLLOWING OTHER LARGE-SCALE TRENDS IN COMMUTING AND ONLINE RETAIL. ...................... 11 RESIDENTS ARE SEEKING MORE HOUSING CHOICES WITH URBAN AMENITIES. ..................................................................... 11 4. CARMEL’S REGIONAL POSITION ........................................................................................................................ 13 CARMEL’S REGIONAL PEER CITIES ................................................................................................................................ 13 KEY INDICATORS ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 COMMERCIAL MARKET .............................................................................................................................................. 21 HOSPITALITY MARKET ............................................................................................................................................... 25 RESIDENTIAL MARKET ............................................................................................................................................... 28 5. POLICY TAKEAWAYS & RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................... 35 KEY TAKEAWAYS ....................................................................................................................................................... 35 RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES ...................................................................................................................................... 42 STRATEGY 1: INTEGRATE RANGELINE WITH SURROUNDING AREAS. .................................................................................... 42 STRATEGY 2: SUPPORT PHASED REDEVELOPMENT ON LARGE OFFICE SITES ......................................................................... 45 STRATEGY 3: KEEP CARMEL AN ACCESSIBLE COMMUNITY FOR WORKERS TO LIVE IN ............................................................. 49 MOVING FORWARD .................................................................................................................................................. 53 APPENDIX A. OFFICE REPOSITIONING CASE STUDIES .............................................................................................. 54 ECONorthwest v This page intentionally blank ECONorthwest 1 1. Introduction and Purpose Carmel has built a thriving commercial and residential base over the last half century by investing in infrastructure and amenities like the Monon Greenway, a thriving Arts and Design District, and other distinct vibrant areas that have attracted new residents and businesses to the city. Situated just north of Indianapolis, it boasts an abundance of corporate offices and national headquarters, making it a desirable location for industries like finance, real estate, health care, and professional services. Over the past three years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, major changes in lifestyle and employment trends have shifted how commercial and residential markets function across the country and beyond. As a result, Carmel, like many other cities in the United States, is adapting to these changes to maintain its unique value proposition as an inner-ring suburban city with easy access to well-paying jobs, abundant recreation activities, and a high quality of life. As Carmel embarks on an update to key sub area plans, which are part of the Comprehensive Plan, it is at a critical juncture to position itself properly as employers and residents with newfound flexibility begin to rethink decisions about how and where to live and work. The City is working to seize the opportunity to further set itself up for success in continuing to attract businesses and new residents that contribute to the city’s strong tax base and continue an excellent standard of living in Carmel. ECONorthwest, working with the City of Carmel, developed this Positioning Strategy to outline how Carmel compares with competitor cities in the region and clarify the actions that Carmel should take to best react to larger economic trends. This report is organized in the following sections: ▪ National Trends including major shifts towards hybrid and remote work, changing trends for brick-and-mortar retail, and the implications of changing demographics and housing options. ▪ Regional Trends that interpret the impacts of broader trends on the Indianapolis metropolitan area, particularly as they relate to the relationship between the urban core and suburban jurisdictions like Carmel. ▪ Carmel’s Regional Position which compares the City with its primary competitors in the region, including Downtown Indianapolis, Fishers, Westfield, and Noblesville. ▪ Key Takeaways and Policy Recommendations that highlight critical decision points for the city and outline actionable steps that the City and its partners can take to improve Carmel’s economic position. ECONorthwest 2 2. National Trends In 2020, communities across the United States saw significant changes to the way that people live and work, with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic transforming everyday life for many workers and residents. As of 2023, cities are still attempting to understand the lasting impacts and implications of these trends on a local level. Some shifts that occurred in recent years may be one-time occurrences or one stage of recurring cyclical trends (such as shifts in capital markets, high interest rates, supply chain disruptions, construction costs, and housing market s). However, other shifts are beginning to transform into long-term, structural changes that will change the way that cities think about strategic investments and policies to ensure prosperity . The future surrounding remote work, brick-and-mortar retail, lifestyle preferences, retirement trends, and more have local implications that may shift the ways suburban cities like Carmel position themselves for economic success. The difficulty of distinguishing between temporary and permanent changes can leave many developers, businesses, and financial institutions with less certainty about the future, creating new challenges for economic development and partnerships with the private sector. It is critical to study and analyze what has changed nationally and locally to better understand and adapt to the future where needed. This section discusses widespread economic trends to set the context for the greater Indianapolis region as well as Carmel’s current position and potential for continued success among its competitor cities. Remote Work Has Changed the Office Landscape Through a ‘Flight to Quality.’ The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have an impact on the way that people work in professional industries who had primarily worked in offices before 2020. National level trends indicate that the greater flexibility in work location (originally necessitated by social distancing) has resulted in employers now making decisions to embrace remote and hybrid work situations with employees, or else seek out smaller, premium Class A office space in desirable locations.1 Many of these decisions are part of attracting talent, driven by worker preferences and companies looking to retain quality employees by providing locational flexibility. In a survey done by New York’s Office Adaptive Reuse Task Force (one of the most comprehensive studies of worker and employer preferences at the city level), 77 percent of 1 Patrick J. Kiger, “How to Make Office-To-Residential Conversions Work,” Urban Land Magazine (Urban Land Institute, December 1, 2022), https://urbanland.uli.org/planning-design/how-to-make-office-to -residential-conversions- work/?utm_source=realmagnet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=HQ%20Urban%20Land%2012%2E05%2E2022 . ECONorthwest 3 office-based employers indicated a hybrid schedule would be their predominant post-pandemic policy.2 For employers retaining physical space, many are intentionally seeking high quality spaces with amenities that can attract employees to the office. As more employers seek out smaller, premium office spaces , older Class B and C offices like those in Carmel’s US-31 corridor are often not seen as ‘commute-worthy’ compared with premium options. These spaces are becoming less in demand nationwide, leading to a higher rate of vacancies as office leases signed before the pandemic expire.3 Office redevelopment trends are one indicator of this ‘flight to quality’ and what is happening to older office buildings taken off the market (with more recently built Class A space generally less likely to be removed overall). Before the pandemic, developers frequently repositioned office inventory for continued use as upgraded office space. In 2019, office renovation was the most common type of redevelopment nationwide (Exhibit 1). In the wake of the pandemic, development trends pivoted. Only a small share (12 percent) of the total square footage taken off the market nationwide in 2021 and 2022 planned to remain in use as offices.4 Instead, many building owners and developers began pursuing conversion to residential units or redevelopment of office space into commercial retail and other uses. 2 New York City Department of City Planning, “New York City Office Adaptive Reuse Study,” January 2023, https://www.nyc.gov/site/planning/plans/office-reuse-task-force/office-reuse-task-force.page. 3 Emma Goldberg, “What Would It Take to Turn More Offices into Housing?,” The New York Times, December 27, 2022, sec. Business, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/27/business/what-would-it-take-to-turn-more-offices-into- housing.html?partner=slack&smid=sl-share. 4 Jacob Rowden and Elena Lanning, “Conversion Activity Gaining Momentum” (JLL Research, October 19, 2022), https://www.us.jll.com/en/trends-and-insights/research/office-research-snapshot-10-19-22. ECONorthwest 4 Exhibit 1. Office Inventory Removals and Redevelopment, United States, 2015-2022 Source: JLL Research As part of shifts in employment and remote work trends, suburban areas with high quality of life like Carmel are faring well. As employers gain more locational flexibility, cities like Carmel are attracting a greater number of businesses to locate offices outside of traditional downtowns.5 Carmel and other inner suburban cities offer attractive amenities for employers and workers, while still providing access to urban centers by their close-in location and transportation routes. Uncertainty about the future of the office market has caused shifts in expectations from investors about preleasing and a decrease in speculative development.6 Increasing costs for construction and rising interest rates may make development less attractive to investors without preleasing, even in strong markets like Carmel. However, even as there is uncertainty about office values and occupancy, suburban markets are expected to retain value better than central business districts.7 5 Marie Ruff, “What the Urban to Suburban Shift Means for the Office Sector” (National Association for Industrial and Office Pa rks, August 11, 2022), https://blog.naiop.org/2022/08/what-the-urban-to-suburban-shift-means-for-the-office-sector/. 6 Urban Land Institute and PWC, “Emerging Trends in Real Estate,” 2023, https://americas.uli.org/research/centers- initiatives/center-for-capital-markets/emerging-trends-in-real-estate/2023-emerging-trends-americas/. 7 Ibid. ECONorthwest 5 Brick-and-Mortar Retail is Adapting to Changing Demand for In- Person Shopping. Brick-and-mortar retail experienced a transformation during COVID-19 pandemic, driven by the acceleration of e-commerce and changing trends in consumer demand. While social distancing provided an impetus for customers to shop online, many people found benefits from the convenience of e-commerce compared to traditional retail. Retailers across the country have realized the need to adapt and create a digital presence to supplement (or in some cases replace) physical locations. Across retail industries, different dynamics are playing out between retail types in the wake of the pandemic, but e-commerce has emerged as a clear frontrunner, with sales increasing by over 30 percent between 2019 and 2020 alone.8 Many retailers also understood the enduring value of physical stores and sought improvements to the physical retail experience to continue drawing customers for in-person shopping as well as new locations near where people live and recreate. Walkable shopping districts are better able to compete with online retailers. Some retail establishments underwent significant changes to their format in response to the pandemic, with the emergence of pop-up stores and smaller-format locations catering to changing consumer expectations for experiential retail. The suburban market in particular saw growth nationwide compared to central business districts, influenced in part by decreased demand from downtown workers.9 Among types of retail, there are also variations: restaurant establishment growth is strongest in the inner suburbs while grocery, leisure, and other services are growing most in outer suburban areas.10 Like Carmel, many suburban cities in the US which have typically had a larger presence of auto-oriented big box stores have begun pivoting to mixed-use developments and walkable shopping districts to compete with the rise of online shopping. Demographic Changes Are Driving New Types of Housing Needs and Preferences. The country’s aging population is changing decisions around housing. In the United States, housing and age demographic changes have had a profound impact on housing preferences and affordability. The population of the United States is aging quickly, with forecasts showing that by 2030, 1 out of every 5 people in the country will be age 65 or 8 Mayumi Brewster, “Annual Retail Trade Survey Shows Impact of Online Shopping on Retail Sales during COVID -19 Pandemic,” United States Census Bureau, April 27, 2022, https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/04/ecommerce-sales-surged-during- pandemic.html. 9 Chris Wheat et al., “Downtown Downturn: The Covid Shock to Brick -And-Mortar Retail” (JP Morgan Chase & Co., January 2023), https://www.jpmorganchase.com/institute/research/cities -local-communities/downtown-downturn-covid-shock-to-brick-and- mortar. 10 Ibid. ECONorthwest 6 older.11 The COVID-19 pandemic also accelerated trends in retirement nationwide, with many late career workers being able to increase savings and leave the workforce ahead of schedule in 2020 and 2021.12 However, many people are also choosing to stay in the workforce longer than previous generations: as individuals live longer, the country is seeing an older workforce that brings along both higher levels of experience and less certainty about workforce replacement.13 Younger cohorts of Millennial and Generation Z households face new challenges that are distinct from previous generations, with higher rates of student debt, housing costs, and inflation that contribute to slower growth in homeownership rates than previous generations.14 Exhibit 2. Homeownership Rates by Generational Cohort Source: Redfin Analysis; Current Population Surveys (ASEC) 1976-2022); IPUMS One critical place where these issues culminate for older and younger generations is around housing options and affordability. Millennials and Generation Z tend to prioritize proximity to work, amenities, cultural attractions, and walkable communities and sustainable housing options. However, rising home sale prices, stagnant wage growth, and higher debt-to-income ratios have made it difficult for many members of younger generations to enter the housing market.15 This has led to increased demand for affordable rental options and shared living arrangements. At the same time, many members of the Baby Boomers and Generation X are looking to downsize from larger homes in favor of smaller, more manageable properties or 11 AARP and Opticos Design, “ Discovering and Developing Missing Middle Housing,” 2022, https://www.aarp.org/livable-communities/housing/info-2022/missing-middle-housing-download.html. 12 Ibid. 13 ECONorthwest, “Redefining Economic Success in Washington State” (State of Washington, February 2022), https://www.ltgov.wa.gov/2022-business-competitiveness-analysis. 14 Hillary Hoffower, “How the Last 20 Years of Economic Turmoil Broke Millennials,” Business Insider, April 14, 2022, https://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-money-financial-economic-trauma-recession-student-debt- inflation-2022-2#:~:text=Millennials%20have%20been%20carrying%20around. 15 Ibid. ECONorthwest 7 transitioning to retirement communities. For many families, multigenerational solutions like Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) are becoming more attractive options for their flexibility and relative affordability.16 Walkable, mixed-use communities are also becoming more desirable locations compared with auto-oriented locations. According to the National Association of Realtors, walkability is an increasingly important factor for households choosing where to live in cities across the country:17 As indicated in a 2023 survey, people want of all ages (and particularly those in Generation Z and Millennial cohorts) prefer easy access to amenities such as shops, restaurants, businesses, cultural attractions, bike trails, and transit. Home prices per square foot in areas with these amenities have generally been rising according with this rising demand.18 The shift to compact districts with efficient land use and easy access by foot or bicycle has changed where many people old and young choose to live and where housing is in highest demand. Exhibit 3. Home Price Comparison of Walkable and Drivable Neighborhoods Source: Opticos Design 16 AARP and Opticos Design, “Discovering and Developing Missing Middle Housing.” 17 National Association of REALTORs, “2023 Community and Transportation Preference Survey,” April 2023, https://www.nar.realtor/reports/nar-community-and-transportation-preference-surveys. 18 Joe Cortright, “Walking the Walk: How Walkability Raises Home Values in US Cities” (CEOS for Cities, August 2009). ECONorthwest 8 3. Regional Trends Carmel and the Indianapolis metropolitan area’s changing market reflects national trends on the local and regional scale. While across the country the pandemic and larger economic trends have changed the way that people live and work, the unique regional conditions for the Indianapolis metropolitan area and greater Central Indiana region are critical to understanding Carmel’s current and potential position in the market. This section summarizes these trends and the broader context, including economic, demographic, and real estate market changes in recent years which will guide what strategies the City should pursue. Regional Context Indianapolis is the fifteenth largest city in the United States at the center of the Central Indiana region, which has historically served as a national hub for sports entertainment and manufacturing, with the dominant regional employment sectors today of healthcare and retail.19 Since the 1980’s, the population of the area has grown by nearly 50 percent, with particularly fast growth in Hamilton County where Carmel and its competitor suburban cities are situated.20 Employment growth in the past two decades was over 18 percent in Central Indiana ; while Indiana took a more severe loss in employment during the 2008 recession, both the state and the region saw a smaller contraction during 2020 compared with the nation at only 3 percent.21 Exhibit 4. Annual Percentage Change in Employment by Region, CEDS Region, Indiana, and the United States, 2002-2020 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); TIP Strategies, Inc. Note: The Central Indiana CEDS region includes the following eight counties: Boone, Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, Johnson, Madison, Marion, and Morgan. 19 Indianapolis Metropolitan Planning Organization, “Central Indiana Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy,” June 2022, https://www.indympo.org/whats-underway/ceds. 20 Ibid 13. 21 Ibid 14. ECONorthwest 9 As the region’s market for talent becomes more competitive, suburban cities like Carmel’s high quality of life investments, employment opportunities, and close proximity to regional amenities in Indianapolis make it an attractive location. Within the region, Hamilton County’s higher share of residents with college degrees, higher median income, higher share of families with children, and higher median housing costs generally set it apart within the Indianapolis area.22 In light of remote work trends, Hamilton County also has the highest share of households with access to a computer and broadband internet in the region, lending it an advantage with the shift in workplace norms.23 Exhibit 5. Median Household Income Variation in the Indianapolis Region, Indiana, and United States, 2019 Source: Central Indiana Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, American Community Survey (2014-2019); TIP Strategies, Inc. The Indianapolis office market is changing from its downtown- centered dynamic. Downtown Indianapolis has historically been the center of the Central Indiana region’s office market, but like downtown areas across the country, continues suffering setbacks for occupancy. Although entertainment activities in Downtown Indianapolis have motivated some employers to push partial return-to-office initiatives, many office tenants are likely to reduce their space needs as their leases come up for renewal.24 Indianapolis has not seen as large of an uptake in remote work compared with peer cities with similar economic and demographic profiles , (Exhibit 6). With fewer people working from home than in other major metropolitan areas, the 22 Ibid 13. 23 Ibid 14. 24 Avison Young, “Indianapolis Office Market Report,” 2022, https://www.avisonyoung.us/web/indianapolis/office-market-report. ECONorthwest 10 rise in vacancies in Downtown Indianapolis has not been as severe as other cities in the United States but still indicates an overall change from pre-pandemic workplace dynamics.25 Exhibit 6 Share of People Working from Home by Peer Regions, 2019-2021 Source: Portland Metro Chamber, ACS PUMS, 2021 1-year estimates Note: Reflects workers who worked remotely at least one day per week on average. Carmel is the standout destination for firms relocating from Downtown Indianapolis. Despite rising vacancies, Downtown Indianapolis still emerged as the highest demand area for office space compared with suburban clusters as of 2022 according to the real estate firm Avison Young.26 However, demand is shifting in the region to new office buildings offering premium space in suburbs like Carmel that capture a higher rent per square foot.27 This reflects the national trend of flights to quality for employers, and a regional shift between the central business district and surrounding areas. Anecdotally from conversations with developers in the region and analysis in this report, Carmel today is the highest-demand location within the Indianapolis suburbs. 25 Oleh Sorokin, “Office Vacancy Rates in 2022,” National Association of REALTORs, February 21, 2023, https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists -outlook/office-vacancy-rates-in-2022. 26 Avison Young, “Indianapolis Office Market Report.” 27 27 Oleh Sorokin, “Office Vacancy Rates in 2022.” ECONorthwest 11 Retail Demand is Changing Following Other Large-Scale Trends in Commuting and Online Retail. Retail is one of Central Indiana’s primary industries, which is also an important component of mixed-use development. Retail has generally seen a quick rebound from the pandemic particularly in the Indianapolis suburbs.28 Many businesses in the region who are shifting to online models still retaining brick- and-mortar storefronts. There is a growing trend towards retailers seeking out locations in mixed-use developments that combine retail space with offices and multifamily housing for convenient access to customers, particularly as “a way to bring the feel of urban living to suburban areas.”29 As with many markets in the Midwest, Downtown Indianapolis is recovering more slowly than suburban locations like Carmel in terms of retail, and retail employment has been on a general downward trend over the past ten years.30 As some residents move out of the city’s Downtown and commute less frequently in light of remote work options, demand for certain types of retail like convenience stores and restaurants has declined,31 while shoppers in the suburbs continue to shop in-person for many types of products. Residents are Seeking More Housing Choices with Urban Amenities. Within the Indianapolis area, many households are seeking out a wider range of housing choices than in the past. This includes a shift away from single-family detached homes as the primary preference for many. According to the MIBOR Realtor Association’s observations in the Central Indiana residential market “walkable neighborhoods with mixed use property types are becoming a consumer preference and a good investment for municipalities .”32 Even in traditionally car- oriented suburbs, there is a growing demand for condo lifestyles and rentals-by-choice, with residents seeking out multifamily units to maintain close proximity to parks, restaurants, shopping areas, and entertainment. 28 Dan Rafter, “A Booming Industrial Market, an Evolving Retail Sector: Indianapolis CRE Market Continues to Show Its Resiliency,” ReJournals, June 1, 2021, https://rejournals.com/a-booming-industrial-market-an-evolving-retail-sector-indianapolis- cre-market-continues-to-show-its-resiliency/. 29 Ibid. 30 Indianapolis Metropolitan Planning Organization, “Central Indiana Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy .” 31 Dan Rafter, “A Booming Industrial Market, an Evolving Retail Sector .” 32 MIBOR Realtor Association, “Market Insights Report” (Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors, May 2023), https://www.mibor.com/marketinsights. ECONorthwest 12 Different generations and households may have different motivations for seeking out a variety of housing types. In Central Indiana, overall demand for homes is currently elevated; but the volume of single - family homes returning to the market is expected to increase as the Baby Boomer generation seeks to downsize with options like ADUs, condos, or townhomes.33 At the same time, economic conditions for younger generations like Millennials including high student debt combined with pressures on the housing market make affordability a primary concern in the Indianapolis area, like much of the US.34 Condos, multifamily rentals, and middle housing types can offer a range of options that meet the needs of both younger and older generations through more affordable housing costs and right-sized units that are more integrated with communities. Exhibit 7. Indiana Counties by Amount of Affordable Available Units for Low Income Households Source: Prosperity Indiana Hamilton County is the most expensive place to live in the Central Indiana region. Within the region, Hamilton County has typically had both the highest median home values and median monthly rents within the Central Indiana region.35 Although this is accompanied by the highest median incomes (Exhibit 5), cost burden has been increasing for Hamilton County residents, particularly among low-income households earning less than 30 percent of the area’s median income.36 New types of housing options and units that are affordable to a wider range of incomes will be important needs for Hamilton County to address in coming years. 33 George Vlahakis, “Real Estate Report: ‘Generational Housing Bubble Is on the Horizon’” (Indiana University, April 26, 2023), https://news.iu.edu/live/news/28233-real-estate-report-generational-housing-bubble-is. 34 James Briggs, “When the Baby Boomers and Gen X Sell Their Homes” (Axios Indianapolis, May 1, 2023), https://www.axios.com/local/indianapolis/2023/05/01/millennial-housing-bubble. 35 Indianapolis Metropolitan Planning Organization, “Central Indiana Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy .” 36 Hamilton County, “2021 Consolidated Annual Performance Evaluation Report,” 2021, https://www.hamiltoncounty.in.gov/DocumentCenter/View/17856/DRAFT-PY-2021-CAPER?bidId=. ECONorthwest 13 4. Carmel’s Regional Position Carmel’s Regional Peer Cities Overview Carmel primarily competes with Downtown Indianapolis for office tenants. Situated directly on the northern border of Indianapolis, the City of Carmel has many advantages for its accessible location. Other suburban cities that compete with Carmel are Fishers, Westfield, and Noblesville. These cities seek to develop a similar combination of high-quality lifestyle amenities mixed-use districts and commercial offices with a similar model to Carmel. For Carmel to remain a strong regional competitor, the City will need to leverage its existing strengths and address development constraints. Exhibit 8. Carmel’s Comparator Cities Source: ECONorthwest ECONorthwest 14 Downtown Indianapolis Downtown Indianapolis is the core of the state’s capital city with a mix of historic charm, modern amenities, and tourist attractions. Monument Circle stands at the heart of the area, featuring the iconic Soldiers and Sailors Monument and serving as a major gathering place and event hub. The area is also home to renowned sports venues, museums, and parks like Lucas Oil Stadium, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Newfields, the Indiana State Museum, and White River State Park. These regional attractions draw in tourism, while major employers and institutions like the Indianapolis campuses of Indiana University and Purdue University bring in a mix of workers, students, and visitors. Like central business districts (CBDs) across the United States, Downtown Indianapolis has struggled with higher office vacancy rates in the last three years with the rise of work-from-home and hybrid workplace trends. Exhibit 9. Summary of Real Estate Deliveries, Downtown Indianapolis, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Image: Indianapolis Business Journal Population: 880,621 (2022, citywide) Size: 5 sq miles (approx.) Population Growth Rate (Since 2010): 8.1% ECONorthwest 15 Fishers Among other suburban cities in Hamilton County to the direct east of Carmel, Fishers is the city’s closest comparison in terms of its character and recent market trends. As a rapidly growing suburb, the city has invested in quality-of -life improvements and connected, mixed-use areas in a similar way to Carmel with a trail network and ample recreation opportunities. The Nickel Plate district offers a walkable, mixed-use area that is similar but on a smaller scale than Carmel’s Monon Greenway corridor. Although it is not currently at the same level of demand and inventory as Carmel, this corridor represents part of the larger regional trail system which may contribute to more opportunities throughout Indianapolis’s northern suburbs. 37 U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts Estimates, 2022. Image: Fishers Parks Population: 101,966 (2022)37 Size: 35.6 sq miles Population Growth Rate (Since 2010): 28.8% Exhibit 10. Summary of Real Estate Deliveries, City of Fishers, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 16 Westfield Westfield is another suburban city that lies directly north of Carmel along the US-31 corridor that helps to connect Hamilton County with Indianapolis. The city has a more rural character and lower population density compared with Carmel but has also developed a number of amenities in recent years, including the Grand Park Sports Campus and Events Center as well as Grand Junction Plaza. The town also connects to the Monon Greenway as it extends north of Carmel, leading to Westfield’s recreational facilities and residential areas. Although Westfield does not currently have an inventory of commercial space to truly rival Carmel, it is anticipated to see growth in coming years given its location on major transportation routes and current abundance of undeveloped land and underutilized industrial space (Exhibit 16). 38 U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts Estimates, 2022. Image: Visit Hamilton County Population: 54,605 (2022)38 Size: 31.1 sq miles Population Growth Rate (Since 2010): 54.3% Exhibit 11. Summary of Real Estate Deliveries, City of Westfield, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 17 Noblesville The City of Noblesville is located adjacent, northeast of Carmel, set further away from central Indianapolis than other comparable cities. Noblesville is home to a historic downtown area, with a commercial main street and the Hamilton County Courthouse as an anchor characteristic. Although Noblesville has a somewhat more rural character in general compared with Carmel, the city is also connected to the regional trail system as well as Highways 37 and 38. In recent years, the City has recently seen greater investment in new multifamily housing near its downtown area. 39 U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts Estimates, 2022. Image: Realty World Population: 72,748 (2022)39 Size: 34.3 sq miles Population Growth Rate (Since 2010): 40.0% Exhibit 12. Summary of Real Estate Deliveries, City of Noblesville, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 18 Sub Areas Carmel and its competitor cities have sub areas with distinct identities that offer a greater access to specific amenities, commercial centers, and housing types. Carmel’s Monon Greenway is part of the Rangeline corridor, which provides retail, office space, and multifamily housing in a walkable area with high-quality public amenities and vibrant social activities. Exhibit 13. Carmel and Comparison City Sub Areas Source: ECONorthwest Likewise, surrounding cities in Hamilton County have also begun to cultivate similar hubs connected to the regional trail system that emphasize mixed -use development which caters to growing demand for new commercial and residential formats within these traditional suburban communities. Today, Carmel’s Rangeline corridor is the most developed among these districts, with Fishers’ Nickel Plate district quickly evolving with new bicycle paths, offices, and apartment buildings. If current trends continue more may emerge as regional competitors for a range of market segments including young professionals, retirees, and more. Exhibit 14. Carmel and Comparison City Sub Areas Source: ECONorthwest ECONorthwest 19 Key Indicators This section provides an overview of real estate market trends in Carmel’s competitor cities using commercial real estate data from CoStar. The exhibits in this section show real estate metrics to help provide context to the performance of real estate in these areas. These metrics include an inventory of square footage for different real estate types, triple-net (NNN) rents, and vacancy rates. Commercial Real Estate Market Overview Among Carmel’s competitor cities, Downtown Indianapolis has by far the greatest inventory of commercial real estate by square footage. With a huge inventory of regional offices, retail, and industrial space, Downtown Indianapolis offers over 66 million square feet of commercial real estate. Nearly half of this inventory is composed of office space. For Carmel’s suburban competitors, Fishers has the most even balance of office, retail, and industrial commercial space. Westfield’s commercial market leans heavily towards industrial space . Westfield has a smaller inventory across these different use types but is proportionately strong in its supply of industrial space. Among commercial real estate types, vacancy rates were highest for commercial offices in each one of the comparable cities except Noblesville (which also had the smallest overall inventory) in 2023 year-to-date, with the lowest vacancy seen in Carmel. This supports the findings of the Market Study that show a strong office market in Carmel and indicates that offices continue to be in relatively high demand for the region. Although Carmel’s re tail vacancies were slightly higher than Fishers and Westfield, they still indicate a healthy retail market, and remain lower than Downtown Indianapolis. Westfield’s relatively low inventory of office space may contribute to its outlier status, with less than a million square feet of space that is more sensitive to fluctuations in individual company decisions. Noblesville’s inventory was so low that it was unable to be calculated for 2023 YTD. The only commercial vacancy type that was unusually high in Carmel was for industrial space, which represents only a small share of the city’s overall commercial real estate market. Exhibit 15. Commercial Vacancy Rates (Office, Retail, Industrial) in Carmel’s Comparable Cities, 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 20 Compared with Fishers, Westfield, Noblesville, and Downtown Indianapolis, Carmel has a proportionately large share of both retail and office space, with the smallest share overall of industrial real estate. This reflects Carmel’s role as an important regional hub for corporate headquarters and white- collar employment as well as its recent investments in retail (particularly in mixed-use corridors). Other suburban jurisdictions maintain a stronger presence of industrial land, which may be tied to a variety of factors for land costs, freight transportation, and the pool of workers available. Given the relatively low significancy of the industrial sector within Carmel’s economy, this section focuses more specifically on office and retail markets. Exhibit 16. Commercial Real Estate Breakdown (Office, Retail, Industrial) in Carmel’s Comparable Cities, 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 21 Commercial Market Office Among its competitor cities, office space in Carmel commands the highest rents per square foot and the lowest vacancy rates. This trend has been occurring for most of the past decade, with Carmel surpassing rents per square foot of office space in Downtown Indianapolis in 2016. While Fishers and Downtown Indianapolis have generally tracked just below Carmel’s rents per square foot in this period, Westfield falls further behind with the lowest rate amongst all five geographies. Exhibit 17. Office Rents per Square Foot, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Note: ‘Downtown’ as listed in charts refers to Downtown Indianapolis. While many central business districts in the United States saw soaring office vacancy rates at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and beyond,40 Carmel as well as Downtown Indianapolis saw only modest changes to vacancy rates. Falling far below the average office 40 Oleh Sorokin, “Office Vacancy Rates in 2022,” National Association of REALTORs, February 21, 2023, https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists -outlook/office-vacancy-rates-in-2022. ECONorthwest 22 vacancy rate reported nationwide by the National Association of REALTORs (which was 12.5% at the close of 2022),41 Carmel remains a relatively strong office market. Among its competitors, Fishers more closely follows the trends for offices in Downtown Indianapolis and Carmel. Although Fishers has only a fraction of the total inventory of office space in the central business district, it reached a comparatively lower vacancy rate in 2023 year-to-date. Westfield’s small inventory of less than 1 million square feet of office space makes the city’s vacancy rate more sensitive to fluctuations in individual building occupancy. The high rates in 2023 year-to-date indicate that offices are not performing as well in the city but may be due to a small number of individual companies moving their location. Exhibit 18. Office Vacancy Rate, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar 41 Ibid. ECONorthwest 23 Sub Area Spotlight: Rangeline and Nickel Plate District Office Markets Carmel’s Rangeline corridor offers a walkable, mixed -use area around the Monon Greenway that is in increasingly high demand for businesses and residents. Since 2011, rents per square foot for office space rose sharply in the Rangeline corridor and surpassed the City’s average rents. In recent years, the City of Fishers has invested in developing the Nickel Plate district as a similar type of area with enhanced public infrastructure to create more pedestrian friendly environment and amenities like gathering spaces and trails. While this area has not yet seen the same level of success as Carmel’s Monon Greenway, there are both benefits and potential downsides for having a similar environment nearby. Although it can mean competition for office tenants seeking premium space with high quality amenities, having an interconnected trail system throughout the region can also add value for Carmel’s investments in bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure. Exhibit 19. Office Rents per Square Foot, Nickel Plate vs. Rangeline, 2011-2022 Source: CoStar Exhibit 20. Office Vacancy Rates, Nickel Plate vs. Rangeline, 2011 -2022 Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 24 Retail Rents and vacancy rates for retail space in Carmel and its comparable cities have fluctuated since 2013, but suburban cities generally outperformed Downtown Indianapolis. In the region, Downtown Indianapolis offers the largest inventory of retail space with nearly 9 million square feet. Among suburban cities in this analysis, Carmel offers roughly double the inventory of Fishers and over five times the total square footage of retail space in Westfield with nearly 7 million square feet. The city’s lower rents compared with other suburban cities may indicate a wider range of options available, including both higher end retail, big box chain stores, auto dealerships, and older establishments in areas like Home Place or E 96th Street. Despite Carmel’s relatively lower rents per square foot in the suburban market, the city (like Fishers and Westfield) still far surpassed retail rents in Downtown Indianapolis since 2013. In 2020 and 2021, both Fishers and Westfield saw a sharp rise in rents per square foot and a dive in retail vacancy rates, indicating a sharp increase for retail demand in these jurisdictions. Exhibit 21. Retail Rents per Square Foot, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 25 Within the region, falling suburban retail vacancy rates in Carmel, Fishers, and Westfield indicate growing demand outside of the Downtown Indianapolis. Contrary to national trends,42 Downtown Indianapolis saw a decline in retail vacancies from 2019 to 2020, but still did not keep pace with Carmel or other cities in the northern suburbs. This indicates that while the region is not experiencing the same overall loss of brick-and-mortar retail, it may be following the overall trend of more retailers seeking suburban locations driven in part by remote work. The extremely low vacancies in Carmel, Fishers, and Westfield indicate that upward pressure will likely continue on the retail market in these citi es. Exhibit 22. Retail Vacancy Rate, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Hospitality Market Hotel Like other types of real estate, Downtown Indianapolis offers by far the greatest inventory of hotel rooms in the region, with institutions like the convention centers, universities, museums, music and sports venues, and parks continuing to attract visitors to the central city. Despite setbacks to the hospitality industry during the pandemic, over 700 new rooms are slated to be added to the Downtown Indianapolis inventory. 42 Chris Wheat et al., “Downtown Downturn: The Covid Shock to Brick -And-Mortar Retail.” ECONorthwest 26 The hotel market in suburban Hamilton County is primarily characterized by business travel on weekdays and a higher influx of leisure travel on weekends, including visitors to attractions like the Grand Park Sports Campus and the Palladium. In the suburban market, Fishers is quickly catching up to the inventory of hotels available in Carmel, while Westfield ’s market remains relatively small in comparison. Easier access to Indianapolis may drive the higher inventory in Carmel and Fishers compared with Westfield, which is further removed from the central city. Exhibit 23. Hotel Room Inventory in Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Downtown Indianapolis still commands higher room rates than suburban cities, holding on to a slight advantage over suburban cities. Despite changes to travel and tourism over the past few years, including a drop in occupancy and room rates in 2020, the attractions and activities in Downtown Indianapolis still show more demand from visitors than surrounding areas. Aside from 2020, average daily room rates have continuously risen for Downtown Indianapolis and stayed consistently above those of suburban areas. 43 Chris Sikich, “Carmel’s Financing, Ownership, of $40 Million Luxury Hotel Creates the Opportunity for Risk or Reward,” The Indianapolis Star, https://www.indystar.com/story/news/local/hamilton-county/2018/03/25/carmels-financing-ownership-40- million-luxury-hotel-creates-opportunity-risk-reward/341951002/. What Is a City’s Role in Hotel Development? While major cities are hospitality hubs, suburban cities like Carmel also present opportunities for hotel development and tourism growth, driven by the presence of employers and attractive entertainment districts. Both its location on the edge of Indianapolis as well as local attractions and businesses make Carmel well-positioned for hospitality as the presence of corporate headquarters and commercial areas generates steady demand from travelers. With strategic partnerships, planning and investments in unique amenities, suburban cities can cultivate themselves as destinations in their own right beyond accommodating visitors to larger central cities and draw in new tax dollars. Carmel’s boutique Hotel Carmichael is an example of a local public-private partnership which has helped to encourage the city’s hospitality sector and support economic development with public support.43 ECONorthwest 27 In the suburban market, Carmel had higher average daily room rates than either Fishers or Westfield in 2023 year-to-date. Although Westfield is relatively new to the hospitality market, with very few hotel rooms available prior to 2016, it competes more closely with Carmel than Fishers, largely due to the high volume of traffic to Grand Park Sports Campus in April through October. Exhibit 24. Hotel Average Daily Room Rate, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Despite variation in room rates, all five areas are seeing similar vacancy rates and experienced similar occupancy impacts from the pandemic. In 2020, vacancy rates sharply increased for hotels related to nationwide travel bans and social distancing but began to see recovery starting in 2021.44 Carmel and its comparable cities in the region saw this quick rebound to pre-pandemic vacancies in 2021. Although there is only a small amount of variation between jurisdictions, Carmel had the lowest vacancy rate in 2023 year-to-date. 44 Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Leisure and Hospitality Projected to Mostly Recover Pandemic -Driven Employment Losses,” The Economics Daily (U.S. Department of Labor, October 17, 2021), https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2022/leisure-and-hospitality- projected-to-mostly-recover-pandemic-driven-employment-losses.htm. Why Does it Matter? Hamilton County charges a lodging tax for hotel rooms of up to 5% for overnight stays. This revenue is used for a variety of purposes to develop new amenities and tourism- related features in the area. ECONorthwest 28 Exhibit 25. Hotel Room Vacancy Rate, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Residential Market Multifamily Rental Market Given its larger size and density, Downtown Indianapolis has a higher overall inventory of multifamily units compared with suburban jurisdictions, which generally trend towards a greater stock of single-family homes. With smaller populations in Carmel, Fishers, and Westfield than Downtown Indianapolis, there are proportionately fewer units.45 Among the four suburban cities, Carmel offers the largest market for multifamily rental units, with over 8,700 units and more in the development pipeline. Carmel and Fishers have a similar population size, but Carmel has nearly 2,000 more units of multifamily housing. Westfield, which has about half of the population of Carmel, also has far fewer multifamily units. With over 700 new units in the development pipeline, Carmel is likely to continue offering more options for multifamily residences compared with other suburban jurisdictions. 45 This section covers multifamily rentals, which can range from smaller-scale buildings to larger complexes. For-sale condo units are covered below under home sales. ECONorthwest 29 Exhibit 26. Multifamily Rental Unit Inventory in Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Rents in Carmel began to rival Downtown Indianapolis in 2020. While other suburban cities have seen steady rent declines (reaching under $1.00 per square foot in 2023 year-to-date), Carmel and Downtown Indianapolis continued to show increased demand for units since 2013. In 2013, Fishers and Westfield had higher rents than either Carmel or Downtown Indianapolis. This trend has since reversed. This may be because the inventory of units in these cities may be composed primarily of older apartment buildings depreciating in value or struggling to retain tenants. ECONorthwest 30 Exhibit 27. Multifamily Rent per Square Foot, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar Carmel also has the fewest available multifamily units among its competitors, emphasizing growing demand in the city. In 2020, Carmel did not experience the sharp spike in Downtown Indianapolis multifamily vacancies that Fishers and Westfield experienced. With the advent of remote and hybrid work, many households made new housing choices seeking more affordable options or areas with higher quality of life. Carmel’s rise in demand indicates that the city’s amenities and larger inventory of units just outside of Indianapolis helped it avoid the same vacancies as other cities in the region . ECONorthwest 31 Exhibit 28. Multifamily Vacancy Rate, Carmel and Comparable Cities, 2013 to 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 32 Sub Area Spotlight: Rangeline and Nickel Plate District Multifamily Markets One of the key features of Carmel’s high Rangeline corridor and Fishers’ Nickel Plate District is their mix of both commercial and residential uses. These newer areas break from their cities’ typical suburban format of single-family detached homes separated from shopping areas and employment hubs. Trends in multifamily rents and vacancy rates indicate increased demand for households seeking to live in these walkable, mixed-use districts. Since 2011, multifamily rents in both Rangeline and Nickel Plate have remained above their respective cities’ average. Although vacancies are still higher in Nickel Plate compared with Fishers overall, historical data show that this will likely change in coming years if current trends continue. As demand increases for a mix of housing types in central and connected areas, this is leading more developers to seek out opportunities for mixed-use buildings in both suburban cities. Exhibit 29. Multifamily Rents per Square Foot, Nickel Plate vs. Rangeline, 2011-2022 Source: CoStar Exhibit 30. Multifamily Vacancy Rates, Nickel Plate vs. Rangeline, 2011 -2022 Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 33 Single Family and Townhome Sales Carmel’s single-family homes and townhomes are larger and more expensive on average compared with other cities in the region. In the past twelve months, Carmel’s sales were higher than all comparison cities in this analysis , including Downtown Indianapolis. The large median square footage of homes in Carmel indicates that this is due in part to larger homes than other suburban cities like Noblesville and Westfield. However, Carmel also surpassed most of its competitors in prices per square feet. Only single-family homes in Downtown Indianapolis were slightly more expensive per square foot, but their smaller sizes led to lower overall prices compared with Carmel. The high price of housing in Carmel is not completely even across the City. As the Market Assessment shows (Appendix A), areas like Home Place and the E 96th Street corridor offered lower price points for smaller, older homes in Carmel . However, large luxury homes in the trade areas of districts like US-31 and Rangeline likely contribute to the higher median price citywide, as well as other residential areas removed from major corridors. Condos represent a lower cost option in Carmel for units that are still close in size to townhomes. The cost differential between single family homes, townhomes, and condos is sizable in Carmel, with the average condo costing nearly half of the average single-family home. While Carmel stands out in the region for high home prices, condos are much lower compared to those in Downtown Indianapolis and only slightly higher than Westfield or N oblesville. Exhibit 31. Median Single Family and Townhome Sale Price by Carmel Comparable City (Past 12 Months, August 2022-July 2023) Source: Redfin ECONorthwest 34 Exhibit 32. Single Family and Townhome Sale Price PSF by Carmel Comparable City (Past 12 Months, August 2022-July 2023) Source: Redfin Exhibit 33. Single Family and Townhome Median SF by Carmel Comparable City (Past 12 Months Sales, August 2022-July 2023) Source: Redfin ECONorthwest 35 5. Policy Takeaways & Recommendations The market landscape of Indianapolis and the Central Indiana region has changed since 2020 as landmark shifts initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic changed the way that people live and work. Strategic positioning plays a pivotal role in the success of cities like Carmel, which have successfully developed a high quality of life and strong sense of community that draw in residents and businesses. Today, Carmel faces a crucial point of adapting to ‘the new normal’ in order to continue its innovation and prosperity. This section presents key takeaways from our comprehensive analysis of Carmel ’s current conditions and its key regional competitors. Through data analysis, stakeholder conversations, and benchmarking against successful case studies, we have gained valuable insights that shed light on Carmel's current position and future potential. These findings informed actionable recommendations to support the city's vision and ensure its strong advantage in the region presented in this section. Key Takeaways Takeaway #1: National and regional market trends indicate a shifting demand towards mixed-use, amenity-rich districts outside of traditional downtowns. Market trends in Carmel’s competitor cities within the region reflect national trends, including a notable shift in demand within the real estate sector. As of 2023, there is a growing emphasis on new property types and locations for office, residential, and retail purposes , leaning into greater demand for mixed-use developments. As the market evolves, investors, developers, and businesses must be attentive to emerging opportunities to capitalize on the region's growth and emerging potential. ECONorthwest 36 Shifting from Downtown to Suburbs Given the influence of commuting and remote work trends, office market trends are one important indicator of regional changes and where employers decide to locate. With greater flexibility offered by remote and hybrid work, more places in Hamilton County could begin to compete with Carmel in coming years if emphasis on Downtown Indianapolis continues to decline. Over the past five years, Carmel’s Rangeline corridor, which offers premium office space around the city’s Monon Greenway, has seen vacancies drop sharply as rents rise, indicating a strong demand in the area. During this time period, Downtown Indianapolis’s office space has seen steadily increasing vacancy and virtually stagnant rental rates. Similarly, vacancies for multifamily units are higher in Downtown Indianapolis compared with the Rangeline corridor. Although Downtown Indianapolis slightly outpaced Carmel overall in terms of multifamily rents and vacancy rates, Rangeline continues to show its competitive edge. The high performance of both multifamily housing and office space in Rangeline compared to Downtown Indianapolis’s historically strong market indicates the success of the area’s mixed-use, pedestrian-scale development. The low vacancies in the Rangeline area’s markets indicate that Carmel would be able to absorb new mixed-use developments in similarly configured areas. Exhibit 34. Office Rents PSF and Vacancy Rate, Rangeline and Downtown Indianapolis, 2013 to 2022 Source: CoStar Exhibit 35. Multifamily Rents PSF and Vacancy Rate, Rangeline and Downtown Indianapolis, 2013 to 2022 Source: CoStar The national and local market is witnessing a transition towards demand for mixed-use areas and well-connected communities that break from the traditional suburban separation of spaces for living, working, and recreating . Beyond traditional office spaces, there is an increasing ECONorthwest 37 demand for flexible workspaces, co-working facilities, and mixed-use developments that integrate residential and commercial spaces with public spaces. Investors will increasingly consider these new property types to cater to evolving consumer preferences. Homebuyers and renters are also seeking different living experiences, which fuel a growing demand for innovative residential developments. Properties offering modern amenities, middle housing types, sustainable features, and proximity to urban-style centers continue to be gaining traction. Builders and developers should focus on creating attractive residential spaces that cater to the changing lifestyle needs of potential buyers. As retail spaces also adapt to the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer habits, prime locations are shifting, and businesses are seeking out areas with high foot traffic, good accessibility, and a blend of in-person experiences. Retail developers may begin to see opportunities to locate alongside suburban offices and multifamily developments in communities like Carmel and its peers. Takeaway #2: Carmel’s Rangeline corridor is well positioned as the premier walkable district in the region to capture demand for new commercial and residential types. While established employment and commercial areas of Carmel like the US-31 and E 96th Street corridors remain active, attention is turning towards emerging neighborhoods and districts like the Rangeline area along the Monon Greenway. Infrastructure improvements, cost advantages, and potential for growth are attracting real estate investments in these locations. Investors need to assess the long-term potential of these areas, considering factors such as transportation links and planned developments in traditionally auto-oriented areas. What is Middle Housing? Middle housing refers to moderate density housing types that fall in between traditional single-family homes and larger apartment buildings. Middle housing can include accessory dwelling units (ADUs), duplexes, cottage clusters, and neighborhood-scale mixed-use/live-work buildings. These housing types can offer moderate density to improve walkability while still matching the existing character of a neighborhood. Middle housing is often effective at meeting the needs of certain households such as seniors seeking to downsize, early career workers, and young families. ECONorthwest 38 Changing Suburban Demand Larger trends are showing that more employers and residents in major cities are looking to suburban areas like Carmel as desirable locations. However, many are beginning to seek new options beyond traditional single-use office parks and low-density single- family homes. Within Carmel, mixed-use districts are already showing to be extremely competitive in the market for office space. The US-31 corridor which has traditionally been home to some of Carmel’s premier office space has been outpaced by the Rangeline corridor in the past five years in terms of rents. While vacancies for both areas have fluctuated, Rangeline’s extremely low inventory of vacant office space indicates continuing strong demand from tenants in Carmel, and particularly within areas like Rangeline with access to a number of lifestyle amenities. Although US-31 has long served as a regional employment hub, its auto-oriented, single-use office spaces are beginning to experience vacancies more similar to Downtown Indianapolis ( Exhibit 34). In the multifamily market, units available along US-31 are in high demand, with a low vacancy rate indicating that there is room to expand new housing options along this corridor. Exhibit 36. Office Rents PSF and Vacancy Rate, Rangeline and US-31, 2013 to 2022 Source: CoStar Exhibit 37. Multifamily Rents PSF and Vacancy Rate, Rangeline and US-31 Source: CoStar As of 2023, Carmel is seeing the benefits of its strong reputation for high quality of life and premier office, residential, and commercial spaces in the region. Right now, the City is primed to take advantage of the next generation of investment in Carmel as a close -in suburban city as residents and employers look outside of Downtown Indianapolis to live, work, and play. Setting the stage for new opportunities while the market is still in a state of change can ensure that the City continues to see successes like the Rangeline corridor and revitalize its legacy areas like US-31. ECONorthwest 39 Takeaway #3: The role of the city is to catalyze development that meets the needs of residents and increases livability by investing in high-quality amenities. Cities have a limited but potentially powerful set of tools at their disposal to position themselves for economic success. Local regulations, policies, and partnerships with the private sector can help to foster thriving communities that increase quality of life for residents. In recent years, the City has taken strategic steps to successfully attract businesses and residents in line with changing demand and demographics in the region. The City has also maintained sufficient flexibility in regulations and policies like zoning and parking requirements to continue attracting investment in office, retail, and residential development. The City’s vision for developing the Monon Greenway, implementing tax increment financing in key areas, developing excellent transportation infrastructure throughout the city , and strategically partnering with the private sector has yielded a number of benefits for Carmel residents. Successful strategies like providing funding from tax increment financing for structured parking in up-and-coming areas have allowed Carmel to build moderate density in its central commercial areas and respond to increasing preferences for walkable, pedestrian- scale districts. The City’s Role in Development Over the past two decades, the City has followed a vision to transform the former railroad line adjacent to Rangeline Road into a vibrant district in the heart of Carmel. The Carmel Redevelopment Commission’s successful public-private partnerships have resulted in an unprecedented influx of mixed-use development in the city, encouraging active transportation and public gathering spaces. When developing large projects, assembling multiple adjacent parcels under single ownership can be challenging. Cities can assist this process through programs to acquire and consolidate parcels into larger development sites. This parcel aggregation reduces costs and complexities for developers compared to negotiating with multiple landowners. By facilitating the land assembly process, cities make investment in community- serving projects like affordable housing more financially feasible. Exhibit 1. Monon Greenway Bicycle and Pedestrian Paths in the Rangeline Corridor Source: ECONorthwest ECONorthwest 40 Takeaway #4: Carmel’s auto-oriented corridors must adapt to stay competitive. Despite recent progress, Carmel’s employment and commercial areas with a more traditional suburban format are oversupplied and under- amenitized compared to the key demand drivers in today’s market, despite the growing concentration of new Class A office in some areas (Exhibit 38). As more businesses and households seek out compact, walkable neighborhoods, corridors like US-31 and E 96th Street are not yet reflective of these trends. Positioning these established areas for a gradual transition to mixed-use districts presents a unique opportunity to create vibrant, sustainable, and economically thriving spaces in Carmel. By strategically integrating residential, commercial, and recreational elements, the city can foster a sense of community, enhance quality of life, and attract both residents and businesses. Retrofitting old office parks by redeveloping parking areas is one way to build complementary growth in these auto-oriented areas both through vertical and horizontal mixed-use development depending on site-specific conditions. In some cases, redeveloping or expanding existing buildings or new infill development in lower-density areas may be the more appropriate and feasible option for creating more amenity rich districts . The City can also support this by continuing to build out bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure and public gather spaces in these areas to ensure that they are connected and able to attract visitors and residents to new areas. Exhibit 38. Share of Office SF by Class, Carmel, 2023 YTD Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 41 Suburban Market While Carmel is currently well positioned for changing market demand in some areas, other cities in southern Hamilton County are also following the trend towards mixed-use centers. In Fishers, the Nickel Plate district has received an influx of public and private investment into new development and infrastructure similar to the Monon Greenway area. Although Fishers has less direct access to central Indianapolis, the declining emphasis on connectivity to the city’s Downtown and greater location flexibility for employers and workers gives it potential to offer a similar value proposition to Carmel as it builds out new areas like Nickel Plate. Rents for office and multifamily real estate have risen over the past decade in Carmel and Fishers. While Nickel Plate remains slightly below the performance of the Rangeline corridor, the district continues to outpace Fishers overall (Error! Reference source not found.Exhibit 18 and Exhibit 28). The Nickel Plate district’s fluctuations in vacancy (particularly for multifamily residential) generally track new deliveries coming online, while rents continue to closely track Rangeline. If Carmel is not able to meet increasing demand by transforming some of its currently auto-oriented development patterns to meet changing preferences, other areas in the region like Nickel Plate may begin to capture more of this audience. Exhibit 39. Office Rents PSF and Vacancy Rate, Rangeline and Nickel Plate District, 2013 to 2022 Source: Costar Exhibit 40. Multifamily Rents PSF and Vacancy Rate, Rangeline and Nickel Plate District, 2013 to 2022 Source: CoStar ECONorthwest 42 Recommended Strategies Carmel’s Objective Moving Forward: Think Big, Think Long-Term, Stay Committed Carmel achieved its vibrant, mixed-use core that attracts residents and businesses through a bold vision that enabled market demand among growing industries like health care and real estate for its amenity-rich hubs and easy proximity to central Indianapolis by major regional thoroughfares. The role of the City was to initiate and catalyze a larger vision for the core, bringing in partners from the private sector. The City should continue to have a comprehensive, bold vision for the city, even if its role may be able to shift from initiator to facilitator. Strategy 1: Integrate Rangeline with Surrounding Areas. As the Rangeline area thrives, Carmel can strategically extend the corridor to better integrate with nearby neighborhoods and foster future mixed-use nodes with locally-serving businesses throughout Carmel. This strengthens both communities: it allows those in the Rangeline area to access more resources outside of the corridor and it allows those in surrounding neighborhoods to connect more easily with the trail, restaurants, and workspaces that now run along the Monon Greenway. In addition to improving the bike, pedestrian and vehicular connections, blending in transitional edges of the built environment to smoothly change from a low to higher density environment will help provide a greater mix of building types to support the new demand that exists. This strategy highlights potential regulatory changes and infrastructure improvements that the City could implement to integrate Rangeline with surrounding areas and foster connected mixed-use districts in Carmel. Action 1: Address Zoning Barriers for Mixed-Use Development Ensuring that zoning and regulatory policies around key commercial and employment areas align with the City’s intended strategies will successfully position Carmel for mixed-use development and new formats of retail, office, and residential space. Density requirements in core areas around the Rangeline corridor are already generally well-aligned with best practices for mixed-use developments. Along US-31, the special MC zone which allows targeted types of development for employment and complimentary uses provides a good example of what the City could seek to implement at a smaller scale both in potential neighborhood nodes and along the E 96th Street corridor. This zone specifically allows for a greater number of uses and more intense development along this major local and regional road in order to foster a more pedestrian -friendly district with transition zones to surrounding single-family residential neighborhoods. ECONorthwest 43 Carmel Mixed-Use Zoning The US-31, Rangeline, and E 96th Street corridors are characterized by commercial business (B) and mixed-use (C) zones, as well as Planned Unit Developments (PUDs) and small areas of Urban Residential (UR) and Urban Core (UC) between the higher intensity areas of the US -31 and Rangeline corridors. Although there are also clusters of Industrial (I) and Manufacturing (M) zoning in this area, many parcels today are occupied by commercial offices or residential buildings. The Meridian Corridor (MC) is a special designation targeted at supporting employment and complimentary uses on parcels adjacent to US-31 to serve both local and regional users, which allows for mixed office, retail, residential, and entertainment uses. Th e City also has several overlay zones, including the Home Place, Monon Greenway (MG-OL), Home Place (HP-OL), Range Line Road (RL-OL), and Old Town (OT-OL) Overlays. Outside of these major corridors and some auto-oriented neighborhood shopping centers, much of Carmel is designated for low-density residential use (S and R), with some moderate density up to 8 dwelling units per acre in transitional areas. S1, S2, R1, and R2 allow only for single-family residential use. Exhibit 41. Citywide Zoning Map Source: City of Carmel Although zoning around US-31 is amenable for mixed-use development, the City should consider refinements that enable a wider range of these projects. We identified the following adjustments to consider: ▪ Create flexibility for setbacks and height requirements in the Meridian Corridor that align with more pedestrian-orientated uses. Current zoning requires wider setbacks and lower building heights for MC parcels that are adjacent to single -family areas. While commercial parcels are generally large along US-31, many are situated next to R-1 or S-2 residential properties that allow only single-family homes, which restricts building height to 2 stories. Implementing step backs where upper floors are recessed can ECONorthwest 44 mitigate the impact of new buildings on residential areas but also create more development opportunity on portions of the site further away from residential areas. Flexibility for the 20–30-foot front yard setbacks on local, arterial, boulevard, and collector streets should also be considered alongside new transportation investments to support a more pedestrian-oriented environment along new bicycle and pedestrian improvements. ▪ Provide flexibility in ground floor requirements and uses to allow for scaled redevelopment, particularly for large-floorplate commercial buildings. The MC and UC zones currently only allows for multifamily housing on upper floors, which would require mixed-use developments to entirely fill the ground floor with other uses such as retail, services, and offices. The large floor plates of many existing buildings and generally large parcels may make it difficult to fill the entirety of these spaces with nonresidential uses for new construction or conversion projects. Allowing for active ground floor design in lieu of or as a portion of current commercial requirements could maximize flexibility for mixed-use developments with a residential component. ▪ Add flexibility in existing mixed-use districts for both vertical and horizontal mixed - use development with different configurations of residential units. In addition to the potential for vertical mixed-use development, horizontal mixed-use buildings may be an opportunity especially on larger sites with existing assets (like office buildings) but where infill around the site could happen and support office demand. Adjusting ground floor retail requirements could include specific options for horizontal mixed-use that still incorporates commercial uses, but better utilizes existing large lots in MC and UC zones. Action 2: Support the integration of bike and pedestrian infrastructure to promote a more pedestrian-friendly environment. The city can utilize its role in public space planning and infrastructure investments to further enhance walkability and bike-ability around the Monon Greenway and Rangeline area. There are a variety of minor improvements and strategic actions the City could implement over time as opportunities arise: ▪ Prioritize bike and pedestrian network connections to surrounding neighborhoods and areas to the Monon Greenway. This could involve building new dedicated bike/pedestrian paths or improving sidewalk connectivity and continuing to install safe street crossings to link nearby residential areas. ▪ Enhance trail access points with amenities like bike parking, wayfinding signage, and lighting both on the Monon Greenway and future offshoots. Provide clear and visible entrances to the trail to make it easy for residents to access. ▪ Improve road crossings and intersections near the Monon Greenway and other multimodal corridors to prioritize pedestrian and cyclist safety. This could include ECONorthwest 45 features like pedestrian islands, crosswalk markings, traffic calming elements, and signals. ▪ Work with developers to require or incentivize pedestrian/bike infrastructure and trail connectivity in new projects adjacent to multimodal trails as requirements for sidewalks, bike lanes, trails can extend the network. Carmel’s Comprehensive Plan includes a menu of street-side components for different street typologies, including off-street and curbside facilities; it will be key to implement these around new development areas. Exploring wayfinding and streetscape themes to connect changing districts like US-31 can help to enhance their desirability for users and investors. ▪ Convert underutilized right-of-way or vacant space near the bicycle and pedestrian network into linear parks and paths. Repurpose space to create greenways and trails. ▪ Continue to implement traffic calming and speed reduction strategies on roads crossing the Monon Greenway and key bicycle/pedestrian routes to improve safety and comfort. Elements like speed humps, chicanes, and road narrowing can reduce speeds. ▪ Provide amenities like benches, water fountains, public art, and landscaping along the full length of the trail and connecting paths to create an appealing environment for walking and biking. Although public-private partnerships have often been successful in Carmel, the role of the public sector in private development can be complicated and open to misinterpretation. However, the role of the public sector in ensuring public amenities is generally a simple, risk - averse way of both supporting city residents and private property owners in the area. Strategy 2: Support Phased Redevelopment on Large Office Sites Large-format suburban offices that are home to corporate headquarters, medical offices, and major employers along the US-31 corridor have long been an important factor in Carmel’s economy. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, changing trends in remote work, commuting patterns, and lifestyle preferences have shifted demand away from large volumes of parking towards more pedestrian-oriented areas. There is an opportunity now to pursue amenity-rich infill development and targeted redevelopment of underutilized space to support existing office buildings with desirable features for office tenants, employees, and residents. Transforming seas of asphalt parking lots into vibrant mixed -use communities represents a major opportunity, albeit not without challenges. Creative solutions to issues like restrictive parking agreements and onerous lending requirements will be needed. Using TIF has allowed many of these buildings to include structured parking to modestly increase density along certain corridors and improve the quality of transportation infrastructure. In return, important local and regional employers have contributed to the strong tax base and employment options available in Carmel. In response to changing trends, the City should work with stakeholders including property owners, developers, and tenants to navigate potential redevelopment ECONorthwest 46 opportunities that reposition Carmel’s existing building stock to remain competitive for attracting employers and residents in the region. Action 3: Develop a Parking Strategy In many communities, user demand and local requirements for parking are major barriers for creating walkable, mixed-use districts. In suburban cities like Carmel, many people depend on traveling by car, but there is an increasing desire for denser, more pedestrian-friendly areas. Developing a targeted plan for parking can have a number of benefits that stem from using land effectively to create more vibrant, sustainable, and cost-effective communities. Implementing shared parking policies that allow for complimentary uses to share space and right-sizing parking requirements can allow land to be efficiently repurposed for infill development or public amenities. With policies that account for different demand patterns between different users (such as office, retail, and residential), cities can help to reduce the amount of space required for parking, reducing costs for developers and encouraging more walkable centers. Supporting structured parking near central, high-volume locations can also help to manage demand in more land-constrained areas. However, garages to accommodate automobile users are typically an expensive component of construction that can impact the feasibility of new projects. This is particularly true for any developments planning to incorporate public benefits like below-market-rate units for workforce housing. Public funding for structured parking is one strategy which has been used successfully in Carmel that allows denser development in centers like Carmel’s Arts and Design District and City Center to be feasible , while working with developers to ensure public benefits in exchange for public funding. Privately-owned surface parking and garages are both typically considerable assets for investors and property owners, particularly in areas like Carmel seeing increased density but with little to no existing transit infrastructure.46 For lenders and owners to see the value in forgoing a portion of parking space in favor of infill redevelopment for office, retail, or commercial uses, there needs to be some assurance that assets will not lose value in this transition. Demonstrating that effective strategies are being implemented can help to reach agreements for repurposing parking space for infill uses. Local government can take some steps to help foster this type of area which yields benefits for residents, businesses, and the environment: ▪ Encourage shared parking solutions in auto-oriented commercial corridors. For Carmel’s traditional, auto-oriented office parks and commercial districts like US-31 and E 96th Street developing a shared parking strategy can help to reduce the need for large surface parking lots, allowing land to be used for small retail or services or 46 Daniel Flynn, “Parking Industry: Strategic Considerations for Investors” (JLL, January 16, 2019), https://www.us.jll.com/en/views/parking-industry-considerations-for-investors. ECONorthwest 47 redevelopment of parking structures. The City can encourage and promote this option and help to support creative solutions like it has done in the Rangeline area. ▪ Allow flexibility for parking requirements in mixed-use development to meet market demand. Carmel provides some flexibility for parking requirements in its current development standards, particularly in its MC, UR, UC, and C zones targeted for mixed- use development. Extending flexibility for the number of required parking spaces in mixed-use buildings and simplifying requirements by use type can help to encourage developers to find more efficient solutions while meeting market demand. ▪ Partner with developers to ensure user needs are met such as the City providing incentives to support the viability of a development. The City of Carmel has done an effective job in working with development around the Monon Greenway in recent years. The City has helped to find solutions through providing partial public funding for structured parking. Action 4: Continue the City’s successful approach of requiring shared public amenities in exchange for incentives like TIF. The City should continue to cultivate public-private partnerships that yield tangible community benefits by incentivizing the private sector. This strategy ensures that public dollars amplify both private investments, create economic opportunities, and enhance the public realm. Carmel’s Comprehensive Plan has objectives around improving mobility options , investing in public infrastructure, and planning for transit-supportive density, scale, and last-mile connectivity in applicable areas, including US-31. Today, the City partners with Hamilton County’s public transit system to offer origin-to-destination services, including mobility device users and older adults. As Carmel grows, providing options to move people efficiently to and from high-traffic centers will be key to continuing making them successful, accessible, and high quality. As areas around commercial and mixed-use hubs begin to see increased density, the City should continue to track transportation needs associated with new development. Expanding transit options in core areas can help to reduce congestion, avoid pressures on parking availability, improve air quality, and attract more customers and workers to businesses. Investing in new public realm improvements around future transit stops and encouraging transit-oriented development can help to ensure that Carmel can leverage these investments to attract visitors, workers, and residents. ECONorthwest 48 Developers interested in repositioning traditional single -use office buildings or other low- density suburban properties face challenges around gaining approval from lenders , negotiating lease terms with current tenants, and navigating a relatively small field of architectural and engineering expertise. The City can help to catalyze these projects that bring more needed types of housing options and public amenities in several ways: ▪ Demonstrate the viability and successes of mixed-use developments as great examples of office repositioning to get financial support from lending institutions. In addition to parking strategies, demonstrating the success of well -connected mixed-use projects with multifamily housing, pedestrian - oriented commercial uses, and premium office space can help to ease hesitancy from financial institutions around repositi oning traditionally well-performing office space. While the City may be limited in its ability to provide guidance around renegotiating leases or financing terms, it can help to address concerns about the availability of parking and automobile infrastructure by demonstrating the success of mixed-use development that has resulted from public-private partnerships. ▪ Communicate a comprehensive strategy around infrastructure investments to support phased redevelopment and use strategic infrastructure investments as a catalyst for Tax Increment Financing (TIF) In Indiana, using TIF as a tool for development requires an economic redevelopment area to be established that includes specific geographic boundaries. For twenty- five years, all increases in business property taxes in excess of the amount received in the base year go into a fund for redevelopment like parking garages, streetscape features, and infrastructure. In Carmel today, existing TIF districts already cover many parcels along the Rangeline, US-31, and E 96th Street corridors, meaning that the City can begin this action within existing TIF districts. Exhibit 42. Map of TIF-Applicable Parcels in Central Carmel Source: City of Carmel Appendix A of this document includes case study examples in comparable communities that could help to highlight the potential of repositioning office space in communities like Carmel. Educational materials and a comprehensive strategy may help to reassure office tenants and building owners as the City seeks to capitalize on changing trends. ECONorthwest 49 development. Looking ahead, strategic infrastructure investments can catalyze development and regenerate neighborhoods. Breathing new life into obsolete office parks curbs vacancies and boosts tax revenue, making redevelopment an important consideration for City investment. It can also be a critical consideration for developers, lenders, and tenants to understand how new infrastructure will impact phased redevelopment. ▪ Look towards potential for investment around future transit options. Carmel today has a limited set of origin-to-destination transit options operated through partnership with Hamilton County. As the City continues to grow up rather than out, it may seek to increase its range of transit services along major corridors like US-31. Developing public amenities around station areas and incentivizing private investment in around these nodes can help to maximize benefits for residents’ quality of life and businesses’ visibility and accessibility for workers. Strategy 3: Keep Carmel an Accessible Community for Workers to Live in Housing production in Carmel has not kept pace with growth, reducing workforce housing availability and creating challenges for meeting the needs of some households. Balanced growth should remain top-of-mind as Carmel plans its future. Developments blending high-end offerings with workforce housing will allow more residents to partake in the city's continuing prosperity. With mindful planning and partnerships, Carmel can foster inclusive growth and communities imbued with a distinct sense of place. Alongside Carmel’s success in attracting employers and lifestyle amenities, it will also need to consider how the City can ensure that those who live and work in Carmel can afford to find suitable housing. Exploring options for new multifamily housing units and moderate-density middle housing types can help to provide a broader range of options for residents including early career workers, young families, and retirees. Action 5: Support Office-to-Residential Conversion Office-to-residential conversion of obsolete office stock is gaining increasing attention nationally as a way to add multifamily housing and redevelop underperforming assets. Older suburban office parks like those in the US-31 corridor have sometimes become opportunities for redevelopment or adaptive Project Financing Context The construction industry is facing considerable challenges financing projects in the current economic climate. Rising material and labor costs due to high inflation and supply chain issues have made budgeting for projects more unpredictable. Meanwhile, rising interest rates have made financing more expensive, with construction loans requiring higher interest payments. With elevated costs and borrowing expenses, developers may struggle to secure favorable financing terms for new projects, or lenders may impose stricter lending standards. These financing difficulties come at a time when the demand for new construction is high across many sectors like housing, offices, and infrastructure. Managing project costs and obtaining funding is crucial but increasingly complex for construction firms in this environment of cost escalations and limited capital availability. The industry must adapt financial planning and underwriting approaches to account for inflation and identify creative funding sources to keep projects viable. ECONorthwest 50 reuse, as more companies and workers perceive them as obsolete in terms of amenities and design (see Appendix A for case study examples).47 Many of these buildings are part of sprawling corporate campuses with lower heights and wider footprints than offices in central downtown areas, and many are also occupied by large, single tenants.48 Some of these buildings can be attractive for residential development from a physical and financial standpoint if they have floor plates which offer access to operable windows and open floor plans that can be configured into residential units (or low enough height to add an atrium). However, location among other office park buildings which continue to serve corporate functions, large parking lots, and few retail options may limit the attractiveness of these properties for residential use. Developing a mix of uses around these areas that can attract and sustain residents and visitors is a key consideration for Carmel as it thinks about partnerships and creating a cohesive vision for US-31 and E 96th Street. In general, office-to-residential conversion units are likely to produce market rate multifamily units.49 Converting office space to residential units has different financial considerations than ground-up construction because it requires acquisition of a performing asset; in most cases, this involves higher costs than acquisition of vacant land or tear-down structures.50 If vacancy rates in a building are above average compared with the local market while higher demand for residential units promises greater revenues as multifamily rentals, there may be a sufficient incentive for property owners to pursue conversion projects. These projects can still be risky, given the relatively small field of architectural and engineering experience related to office-to-residential conversion, potential for unknown challenges with reconfiguring buildings, and lingering uncertainty around remo te and hybrid work trends.51 The City can potentially help to: ▪ Highlight and market new opportunities of federal funding for office to residential conversion to property owners and investors. New upcoming federal funding available for office to residential conversions can also help to make projects more feasible.52 City staff can potentially help to highlight these opportunities for developing large mixed - use areas with multifamily housing that is likely to be more attainable to the workforce. 47 Dustin C. Read, “Profiles in the Evolution of Suburban Office Parks” (National Association for Industrial and Office Parks, August 2019). 48 Ibid. 49 Anjali Kolachalam, “Office to Residential Conversions: Scalable Opportunity or Too Unique to a City Block?” (Washington DC: Up for Growth, November 2022). 50 Ibid. 51 Richard McGahey, “Converting Offices to Residences Can Help Fight the Housing Shortage,” Forbes, December 9, 2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardmcgahey/2022/12/09/converting-offices-to-residences-can-help-fight-the-housing- shortage/?sh=139de24f7eb3. 52 US Department of Housing and Urban Development, “Exploring Office to Residential Conversions,” 2023, https://www.grants.gov/web/grants/view-opportunity.html?oppId=349496. ECONorthwest 51 ▪ Support and remove barriers to tenant improvements to upgrade lower class office to premium spaces. Upgrading aging office buildings with tenant improvements can help revive class B office space to better meet changing business needs. Streamlining permitting and zoning to enable mixed-use conversions allows older buildings to adapt and make renovations to layout and amenities that are more competitive. This can allow property owners and developers to consider partial conversion to residential units. Action 6: Allow for Middle Housing in Transition Areas with Development Potential Middle housing options like duplexes and townhomes are in high demand in Carmel as an option for moderate density housing around key core areas. On average, single-family homes in Carmel come at a higher price point than any of its competitors in the northern Indianapolis area suburbs (Exhibit 32). While townhomes in the city also come at a relatively high price point for the region, they are generally more attainable to moderate-income, workforce households than large, detached homes characteristic of much of Carmel. Accessory dwelling units (ADUs), which have begun to gain some attention in Carmel in recent years, can also meet a variety of housing needs by providing additional living space which can accommodate multigenerational households or small-scale rental units in existing communities. Although a recent ordinance failed to pass in 2021, there could be potential to continue momentum for incremental allowances for ADUs in more single-family zones. Emphasizing the ability for ADUs to be consistent with existing neighborhood character and their importance for age-friendly housing could become an advantage for Carmel as a c ommunity which supports multigenerational households and aging in place. Middle Housing In Carmel In Carmel today, duplexes are permitted within R -3 and R-4 zones, while R-1, R-2, S-1, and S-2 zones are restricted to single-family homes. The R-5 zone which is applicable in few places allows for more intense multiple-unit development, as well as some of the city’s commercial and employment zones. Around the Rangeline corridor, there is a transition from more intense commercial areas to single- family parcels, with some targeted areas allowing for duplexes and more dense multifamily housing just adjacent to Rangeline Road and the Monon Greenway. However, the US-31 corridor has a quicker transition from its MC mixed-use corridor to single-family zones to the west side. Currently, ADUs are permitted in limited areas of Carmel, including C-1 and C-2 mixed-use zones. However, these types of units generally fit well with single-family homes as either internal or detached accessory units. ADUs must confirm to the same height, setbacks, lot coverage, FAR, landscaping, and design requirements as the base zone. Exhibit 2. Zoning Map Detail of Rangeline and US-31 Areas Source: City of Carmel ECONorthwest 52 In order to accommodate the growing number of workers in Carmel and a variety of households, the City could help to encourage more types of housing options. Although allowing for moderate density does not guarantee that it will be built, the City could proactively make the following adjustments to open the door for development if there is sufficient demand: ▪ Consider new options for ADUs by expanding allowances for ADUs in single family zones as incremental approach to adding new residential units. Current zoning allows for either one attached or one detached ADU per property in limited areas. The City could consider expanding allowances for ADUs to single family zones as a first step, with an incremental approach for allowing internal units such as basement or garage conversions. ▪ If uptake of ADUs increases (along with public support), allowing for a second accessory unit with requirements that help to preserve existing neighborhood character. For instance, the City could allow for an internal conversion ADU on properties that already have a detached unit to allow for moderate density increases within existing structures. ▪ Explore areas to expand middle housing allowances near major corridors like US-31 or E 96th and strategically upzoning areas near new mixed-use developments. If there is development capacity and potential opportunities for redevelopment in areas adjacent to major corridors like US-31 or E 96th Street, the City could consider strategically upzone parcels near new development, allowing for middle housing types like townhome or duplex development. ECONorthwest 53 Moving Forward With its reputation as a premier location in the region, Carmel must take bold steps to retain its competitive edge. While the Rangeline corridor showcases the city's prowess in cultivating dynamic urban places, aging office parks and auto-centric corridors now lag behind evolving market demand. Through nimble zoning, tactical infrastructure investments, and creative public -private partnerships, Carmel can catalyze the gradual metamorphosis of these areas into vibrant mixed - use nodes. Seamlessly connected by walkable streets and trails, a necklace of urban centers will emerge, each with distinct character. To thread this vision into reality, flexibility and collaboration will be instrumental. Carmel must embrace its vital role as a public partner focused on enriching public spaces, sparking investment, and enhancing quality of life. By taking purposeful steps together, Carmel can transform its possibilities into progress, retaining its place as a regional model for decades to come. ECONorthwest 54 Appendix A. Office Repositioning Case Studies Case Study 1: Attracting Millennials Leaving the City for the Inner Suburbs Project: Park + Ford City: Alexandria, VA Year Built/Converted: 1967/2021 Units Produced: 435 Building: 450,000 SF (across two roughly equally sized 14-story buildings), with 90 x 180 ft. rectangular floor plates Vacancy: 38% Conversion Cost Per Unit: $271,264 Context: Park + Ford is located on the west side of Alexandria, an i nner ring suburb within the greater Washington D.C. market. Alexandria is part of a well-connected region, but the project site is located away from major transit lines in a more auto-oriented area with easy highway access and growing connectivity to regional bike trails. Before conversion, it primarily hosted federal agencies as tenants. Project Description: In 2020, Lowe and USAA Real Estate began pursuing residential conversion for the majority of two buildings located near the interchange of I-395 and King Street. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the building saw rising vacancies in former office tenan ts. The development team saw the opportunity to reposition these properties into mixed -use residential buildings, with a focus on attracting millennials moving from the city to lower density suburbs with easy access to highways. The new units in Park + Ford offer apartment residences larger than those which are typically developed as new construction in the Washington D.C market in order to utilize interior floor space . To be attractive to young professionals, the building offers a number of premium amenities and ground floor retail. Additionally, the project transformed 10,000 square feet of structured parking space into a daycare to add value for young families. Outcome: After occupancy, Park + Ford has exceeded its pro forma expectations and saw a faster uptick in occupancy than anticipated with remote workers leaving the city during the pandemic. Sources: • https://www.bisnow.com/washington-dc/news/multifamily/construction-begins-on-435-unit-office-to- residential-conversion-in-alexandria-106567 • https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220629005344/en/Lowe-and-USAA-Real-Estate-Unveil-Park- Ford-Transformation-of-1980s-Era-Office-Complex-Into-Modern-Apartments-in-Alexandria-Virginia • https://www.nmhc.org/globalassets/research--insight/research-reports/conversion/behind-the- facade_conversion-report.pdf ECONorthwest 55 Case Study 2: Transforming Office Parking Lots to Multifamily Housing Project: Link Apartments City: Charlotte, NC Year Built/Converted: 2020 Units Produced: 553 Building: N/A Vacancy: N/A Total Cost Per Unit: $300,000 (approx.) Context: The Link Apartments are located in Charlotte, North Carolina outside of the city’s central business district (CBD). At the time of construction, the Little Sugar Creek greenway had recently been extended to the area (providing improved bike access) and another new renovation project nearby created a new anchor for dining and shopping within walking distance. Project Description: In 2014, Grubb Properties purchased two old mid-century office buildings located in a developing area outside of Charlotte’s downtown area, including ten acres total of the two buildings and their large surface parking lots. In the following years, the dev eloper first renovated the outdated offices into premium Class A spaces, and then repurposed the parking lots for new construction multifamily housing. The process involved rezoning the land for multifamily use and making a number of public realm improvements to sidewalks surrounding the buildings. The final project includes a shared parking garage to serve both office and residential tenants. Outcome: According to Grubb Properties, the method of converting suburban office parks has been beneficial in this case and others, “By re-zoning the land for multifamily use, we essentially got the land for free. This is particularly powerful in urbanizing parts of cities like this one where land is expensive. In these areas, surface parking is a very poor use of that precious ‘resource.” Sources: • https://www.grubbproperties.com/blog/great-unpaving-transforming-parking-lots-neighborhoods • https://www.fastcompany.com/90876627/how-parking-lots-across-the-u-s-are-being-turned-into-housing Before After ECONorthwest 56 Case Study 3: Pivoting New Suburban Class A Office for Mixed-Use Development Project: Six at Park City: Parkville, MO Year Built/Converted: 2019/2020 Units Produced: 27 Building: 54,000 SF, (half MF, half office), 100 x 120 ft. rectangular floor plates Vacancy: 40% pre-leased as prerequisite for construction Conversion Cost Per Unit: $66,667 Context: Parkville, MO is an affluent Midwestern river town with historic charm located approximately a 20-minute drive to Kansas City. Like Carmel, the small city is home to corporate headquarters and prior to the COVID-19 pandemic had a higher rate of residents commuting to an d from Kansas City. Six at Park is located along Missouri’s Route 9, a regional connection to the CBD next to Park University. Project Description: During construction which began in 2019, the Foutch Brothers development team saw an opportunity early in the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic to pivot to a mixed-use office and residential building. Meeting the growing wave of remote work, the developer swi tched from an all- office plan to a split of half-office and half-apartment early in 2020. The development received support from the Parkville Old Town Community Improvement District (CID) and the City of Parkville for developing parking space to be shared between office tenants, residents, and visitors to Old Town. Outcome: The project had a positive financing experience, with the initial office loan able to cover apartments when reassessed. Six at Park met pro forma expectations, and although the target market was students because of the building’s proximity to Park Universi ty, it ultimately saw most units occupied by workers at corporate offices in Parkville. Sources: • https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/news/2021/03/24/foutch-six-at-park-parkville-apartment- conversion.html • https://www.nmhc.org/globalassets/research--insight/research-reports/conversion/behind-the- facade_conversion-report.pdf • https://parkvillemo.gov/download/SixAtParkIndependentCost-BenefitAnalysis.pdf ECONorthwest 57 Case Study 4: Renovating Structured Parking to Meet Growing Housing Demand Project: 508 West Apartments City: Spokane, WA Year Built/Converted: 1964/2022 Units Produced: 85 Building: 55,000 SF building + 14- story 43,000 SF parking structure, rectangular 87-60 and 48x64 floor plates Vacancy: 40-50% Conversion Cost Per Unit: $176,000 Context: The 508 West apartments are located in a CBD-adjacent district in mid-sized city with a cluster of medical and bioscience industry employers. The building’s 14 -level attached parking garage was originally constructed with flat floors with relatively small square footage, minimizing the need for replacing entire floors and allowing for natural light to reach into new units. Project Description: Developer targeted new remote workers coming into the market for its relative affordability and concentration of medical professionals. This project leveraged an underutilized existing parking garage by converting it into residential units alongside the main building’s renovation. To make the former garage work for residential use, the developer took out every other floor to create high-ceiling loft-style studio and one-bedroom units. The final product is a mixed-use residential building with ground floor commercial (including a coffee shop, pharmacy, and hair salon). Outcome: This project was a risky concept, which is not a typical development in the Spokane market. The developer obtained a loan from a local financier with interest in the area who trusted Brumback/Squire’s track record in the region. The building was also a long-term hold which was seeing increasing vacancy and limited potential to continue as single -use office. Sources: • https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/dec/20/downtown-medical-office-building-garage-to-be-conv/ • https://www.spokanejournal.com/local-news/brumback-to-convert-qualmed-plaza-into-rental-units/ In Progress Before ECONorthwest 58