HomeMy WebLinkAboutCCS Demographic Study Report 2018
Carmel-Clay School District:
POPULATION AND ENROLLMENT FORECASTS,
2019-20 THROUGH 2028-29
November 2018
McKibben Demographic Research, LLC
Jerome McKibben, Ph.D.
Rock Hill, SC
j.mckibben@mckibbendemographics.com
978-501-7069
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 3
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 4
DATA ............................................................................................................................................................. 5
ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................................................................................. 5
METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................................................ 8
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................ 10
Appendix A: Supplemental Tables ............................................................................................................. 11
Appendix B: Population Forecasts ............................................................................................................. 15
Appendix C: Population Pyramids ............................................................................................................... 27
Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts ............................................................................................................. 33
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1. The resident total fertility rate for Carmel-Clay School District over the life of the forecasts
is below replacement level. (1.85 vs. the replacement level of 2.1)
2. Most in-migration to the district continues to occur in the 0-to-9 and 25-to-44 year old age
groups.
3. The local 18-to-24 year old population continues to leave the district, going to college or
moving to other urbanized areas. This population group accounts for the largest segment of
the district’s out migration flow. The over 70 population constitutes the second largest
outflow.
4. The primary factors causing the district's enrollment to decrease after the 2021-22 school
year is the slowdown in the number of new housing units being constructed, a limited
existing homes sales market in the district coupled with a rapidly increasing number of
“empty nest” households.
5. Changes in year-to-year enrollment over the next 10 years will primarily be due to smaller
cohorts entering and moving through the school system in conjunction with larger cohorts
leaving the system.
6. The elementary enrollment will begin a slight, but persistent decline after the 2019-20
school year. This will be due primarily to the fact that the rising 5th grade cohorts most
years will be greater the 1,350 students in size.
7. The median age of the population will increase from 39.1 in 2010 to 43.6 in 2030.
8. Even if the district continues to have a significant level of annual new home construction,
the rate, magnitude and price of existing home sales will become the increasingly dominant
factor affecting the amount of population and enrollment change.
9. Total district enrollment is forecasted to increase by 70students, or 0.4%, between 2018-19
and 2023-24. Total enrollment will decline by 603 students, or -3.7%, from 2023-24 to
2028-29.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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INTRODUCTION
By demographic principle,
distinctions are made between projections
and forecasts. A projection extrapolates the
past (and present) into the future with little
or no attempt to take into account any factors
that may impact the extrapolation (e.g.,
changes in fertility rates, housing patterns or
migration patterns) while a forecast results
when a projection is modified by reasoning to
take into account the aforementioned factors.
To maximize the use of this study as a
planning tool, the ultimate goal is not simply
to project the past into the future, but rather
to assess various factors’ impact on the
future. The future population and enrollment
change of each school district is influenced by
a variety of factors. Not all factors will
influence the entire school district at the
same level. Some may affect different areas at
dissimilar magnitudes and rates causing
changes at varying points of time within the
same district.
The forecaster’s judgment, based on a
thorough and intimate study of the district,
has been used to modify the demographic
trends and factors to more accurately predict
likely changes. Therefore, strictly speaking,
this study is a forecast, not a projection; and
the amount of modification of the
demographic trends varies between different
areas of the district as well as within the
timeframe of the forecast.
To calculate population forecasts of
any type, particularly for smaller populations
such as a school district, realistic suppositions
must be made as to what the future will bring
in terms of age specific fertility rates and
residents’ demographic behavior at certain
points of the life course. The demographic
history of the school district and its interplay
with the social and economic history of the
area is the starting point and basis of most of
these suppositions particularly on key factors
such as the age structure of the area. The
unique nature of each district's and
attendance area’s demographic composition
and rate of change over time must be
assessed and understood to be factors
throughout the life of the forecast series.
Moreover, no two populations, particularly at
the school district and attendance area level,
have exactly the same characteristics.
The manifest purpose of these
forecasts is to ascertain the demographic
factors that will ultimately influence the
enrollment levels in the district’s schools.
There are of course, other non-demographic
factors that affect enrollment levels over time.
These factors include, but are not limited to
transfer policies within the district; student
transfers to and from neighboring districts;
placement of “special programs” within
school facilities that may serve students from
outside the attendance area; state or federal
mandates that dictate the movement of
students from one facility to another (No
Child Left Behind was an excellent example of
this factor); the development of charter
schools in the district; the prevalence of home
schooling in the area; and the dynamics of
local private schools.
Unless the district specifically
requests the calculation of forecasts that
reflect the effects of changes in these non-
demographic factors, their influences are held
constant for the life of the forecasts. Again,
the main function of these forecasts is to
determine what impact demographic changes
will have on future enrollment. It is quite
possible to calculate special “scenario”
forecasts to measure the impact of school
policy modifications as well as planned
economic and financial changes. However in
this case the results of these population and
enrollment forecast are meant to represent
the most likely scenario for changes over the
next 10 years in the district and its
attendance areas.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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The first part of the report will
examine the assumptions made in calculating
the population forecasts for the Carmel-Clay
School District. Since the results of the
population forecasts drive the subsequent
enrollment forecasts, the assumptions listed
in this section are paramount to
understanding the area’s demographic
dynamics. The remainder of the report is an
explanation and analysis of the district's
population forecasts and how they will shape
the district's grade level enrollment forecasts.
DATA
The data used for the forecasts come
from a variety of sources. The Carmel-Clay
School District provided enrollments by
grade and attendance center for the school
years 2010-2011 to 2018-19. Birth and death
data for the years 2000 through 2017were
obtained from the Indiana Department of
Health. The net migration values were
calculated using Internal Revenue Service
migration reports for the years 2000 through
2017.
The data used for the calculation of
migration models came from the United
States Bureau of the Census, 2005 to 2010,
and the models were designed using
demographic and economic factors. The base
age-sex population counts used are from the
results of the 2010 Census.
Recently the Census Bureau began
releasing annual estimates of demographic
variables at the block group and tract level
from the American Community Survey (ACS).
There has been wide scale reporting of these
results in the national, state and local media.
However, due to the methodological
problems the Census Bureau is experiencing
with their estimates derived from ACS data,
particularly in areas with a population of less
than 60,000, the results of the ACS are not
used in these forecasts. For example, given
the sampling framework used by the Census
Bureau, each year only 960 of the over 32,000
current households in the district would have
been included. For comparison 4,200
households in the district were included in
the sample for the long form questionnaire in
the 2000 Census. As a result of this small
sample size, the ACS survey result from the
last 5 years must be aggregated to produce
the tract and block group estimates.
To develop the population forecast
models, past migration patterns, current age
specific fertility patterns, the magnitude and
dynamics of the gross migration, the age
specific mortality trends, the distribution of
the population by age and sex, the rate and
type of existing housing unit sales, and future
housing unit construction are considered to
be primary variables.
In addition, the change in household
size relative to the age structure of the
forecast area was addressed. While there was
a slight drop in the average household size in
the Carmel-Clay School District as well as
most other areas of the state during the
previous 20 years, the rate of this decline has
been forecasted to slow over the next ten
years.
ASSUMPTIONS
For these forecasts, the mortality
probabilities are held constant at the levels
calculated for the year 2010. While the
number of deaths in an area are impacted by
and will change given the proportion of the
local population over age 65, in the absence of
an extraordinary event such as a natural
disaster or a breakthrough in the treatment of
heart disease, death rates rarely move rapidly
in any direction, particularly at the school
district or attendance area level. Thus,
significant changes are not foreseen in
district’s mortality rates between now and
the year 2028.
Any increases forecasted in the
number of deaths will be due primarily to the
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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general aging of the district’s population and
specifically to the increase in the number of
residents aged 65 and older.
Similarly, fertility rates are assumed
to stay fairly constant for the life of the
forecasts. Like mortality rates, age specific
fertility rates rarely change quickly or
dramatically, particularly in small areas.
Even with the recently reported rise in the
fertility rates of the United States, overall
fertility rates have stayed within a 10% range
for most of the last 40 years. In fact, the vast
majority of year to year change in an area’s
number of births is due to changes in the
number of women in child bearing ages
(particularly ages 20-29) rather than any
fluctuation in an area’s fertility rate.
The resident total fertility rate (TFR),
the average number of births a woman will
have while living in the school district during
her lifetime, is estimated to be 1.85 for the
total district for the ten years of the
population forecasts. A TFR of 2.1 births per
woman is considered to be the theoretical
“replacement level” of fertility necessary for a
population to remain constant in the absence
of in-migration. Therefore, in the absence of
migration, fertility alone would be insufficient
to maintain the current level of population
and enrollment within the Carmel-Clay
School District over the course of the forecast
period.
A close examination of data for the
Carmel-Clay School District has shown the
age specific pattern of net migration will be
nearly constant throughout the life of the
forecasts. While the number of in and out
migrants has changed in past years for the
Carmel-Clay School District (and will change
again over the next 10 years), the basic age
pattern of the migrants has stayed nearly the
same over the last 30 years.
Based on the analysis of data it is safe
to assume this age specific migration trend
will remain unchanged into the future. This
pattern of migration shows most of the local
out-migration occurring in the 18-to-24 year
old age group as young adults leave the area
to go to college or move to other urbanized
areas. The second group of out-migrants is
those householders aged 70 and older who
are downsizing their residences. Most of the
local in-migration occurs in the 0-to-9 and 25-
44age groups (the bulk of the which come
from areas within 75 miles of the Carmel-Clay
School District) primarily consisting of
younger adults and their children.
As the Hamilton County area is not
currently contemplating any major
expansions or contractions, the forecasts also
assume that the current economic, political,
social, and environmental factors, as well as
the transportation and public works
infrastructure (with a few notable
exceptions) of the Carmel-Clay School District
and its attendance areas will remain the same
through the year 2028.
Below is a list of assumptions and
issues that are specific to the Carmel-Clay
School District These issues have been used
to modify the population forecast models to
more accurately predict the impact of these
factors on each area’s population change.
Specifically, the forecasts for the Carmel-Clay
School District assume that throughout the
study period:
a. The national, state or regional
economy does not go into deep
recession at any time during the 10
years of the forecasts; (Deep
recession is defined as four
consecutive quarters where the GDP
contracts greater than 1% per
quarter)
b. Interest rates have reached a historic
low and will not fluctuate more than
one percentage point in the short
term; the interest rate for a 30 year
fixed home mortgage stays below
5.0%;
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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c. The rate of mortgage approval stays
at 1999-2003 levels and lenders do
not return to “sub-prime” mortgage
practices;
d. There are no additional restrictions
placed on home mortgage lenders or
additional bankruptcies of major
credit providers;
e. The rate of housing foreclosures does
not exceed 125% of the 2005-2008
average of Hamilton County for any
year in the forecasts;
f. All currently planned, platted, and
approved housing developments are
built out and completed by 2027. All
housing units constructed are
occupied by 2028;
g. The unemployment rates for the
Hamilton County and the Indianapolis
Metropolitan Area will remain below
6.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;
h. The intra district student transfer
policy remains unchanged over the
next 10 years;
i. The State of Indiana does not change
any of its current laws or policies
regarding Charter Schools, Vouchers
or inter district transfers;
j. No additional Charter schools open in
Hamilton County over the next 10
years.
k. The rate of students transferring into
and out of the Carmel-Clay School
District will remain at the 2011-12 to
2015-16 average;
l. The Carmel-Clay School District does
not adopt an “open enrollment” policy
any time over the next 10 years;
m. The inflation rate for gasoline will
stay below 5% per year for the 10
years of the forecasts;
n. There will be no building moratorium
within the district;
o. Businesses within the Indianapolis
Metropolitan Area and the Carmel-
Clay School District will remain
viable;
p. The number of existing home sales in
the district that are a result of
“distress sales” (homes worth less
than the current mortgage value) will
not exceed 20% of total homes sales
in the district for any given year;
q. Housing turnover rates (sale of
existing homes in the district) will
remain at their current levels. The
majority of existing home sales are
made by home owners over the age of
60;
r. Private school and home school
attendance rates will remain
constant;
s. The rate of foreclosures for
commercial property remains at the
2004-2008 average for Hamilton
County;
If a major employer in the district
or in the Greater Indianapolis Metropolitan
Area closes, reduces or expands its
operations, the population forecasts would
need to be adjusted to reflect the changes
brought about by the change in economic and
employment conditions. The same holds true
for any type of natural disaster, major change
in the local infrastructure (e.g., highway
construction, water and sewer expansion,
changes in zoning regulations etc.), a further
economic downturn, any additional weakness
in the housing market or any instance or
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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situation that causes rapid and dramatic
population changes that could not be
foreseen at the time the forecasts were
calculated.
The high proportion of high school
graduates from the Carmel-Clay School
District that attend college or move to urban
areas outside of the district for employment
is a significant demographic factor. Their
departure is a major reason for the extremely
high out-migration in the 18 to 24 age group,
and was taken into account when calculating
these forecasts. The out-migration of
graduating high school seniors is expected to
continue over the period of the forecasts and
the rate of out-migration has been forecasted
to remain the same over the life of the
forecast series.
Finally, all demographic trends (i.e.,
births, deaths, and migration) are assumed to
be linear in nature and annualized over the
forecast period. For example, if 1,000 births
are forecasted for a 5-year period, an equal
number, or proportion of the births are
assumed to occur every year, 200 per year.
Actual year-to-year variations do and will
occur, but overall year to year trends are
expected to be constant.
METHODOLOGY
The population forecasts presented in
this report are the result of using the Cohort-
Component Method of population forecasting
(Siegel, and Swanson, 2004: 561-601) (Smith
et. al. 2004). As stated in the
INTRODUCTION, the difference between a
projection and a forecast is in the use of
explicit judgment based upon the unique
features of the area under study. Strictly
speaking, a cohort projection refers to the
future population that would result if a
mathematical extrapolation of historical
trends.
Conversely, a cohort-component
forecast refers to the future population that is
expected because of a studied and purposeful
selection of the components of change (i.e.,
births, deaths, and migration) and forecast
models are developed to measure the impact
of these changes in each specific geographic
area.
Five sets of data are required to
generate population and enrollment
forecasts. These five data sets are:
a. a base-year population (here, the
2010 Census population for the
Carmel-Clay School District and
its attendance areas);
b. a set of age-specific fertility rates
for the district to be used over the
forecast period and its attendance
areas;
c. a set of age-specific survival
(mortality) rates for the district
and its attendance areas;
d. a set of age-specific migration
rates for the district and its
attendance areas; and;
e. the historical enrollment figures
by grade.
The most significant and difficult
aspect of producing enrollment forecasts is
the generation of the population forecasts in
which the school age population (and
enrollment) is embedded. In turn, the most
challenging aspect of generating the
population forecasts is found in deriving the
rates of change in fertility, mortality, and
migration.
From the standpoint of demographic
analysis, the Carmel-Clay School District is
classified as a “small area” population (as
compared to the population of the state of
Indiana or to that of the United States). Small
area population forecasts are more
complicated to calculate because local
variations in fertility, mortality, and
migration may be more irregular than those
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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at the regional, state or national scale.
Especially challenging is the forecast of the
migration rates for local areas, because
changes in the area's socioeconomic
characteristics can quickly change from past
and current patterns (Peters and Larkin,
2002.)
The population forecasts for Carmel-
Clay School District were calculated using a
cohort-component method with the
populations divided into male and female
groups by five-year age cohorts that range
from 0-to-4 years of age to 85 years of age
and older (85+). Age- and sex-specific
fertility, mortality, and migration models
were constructed to specifically reflect the
unique demographic characteristics of each of
the attendance areas in the Carmel-Clay
School District.
The enrollment forecasts were
calculated using a modified average
survivorship method. Average survivor rates
(i.e., the proportion of students who progress
from one grade level to the next given the
average amount of net migration for that
grade level) over the previous five years of
year-to-year enrollment data were calculated
for grades two through twelve. This
procedure is used to identify specific grades
where there are large numbers of students
changing facilities for non-demographic
factors, such as private school transfers or
enrollment in special programs.
The survivorship rates were modified
or adjusted to reflect the average rate of
forecasted in and out migration of 5-to-9, 10-
to-14 and 15-to-17 year old cohorts to each of
the attendance centers in Carmel-Clay School
District for the period 2010 to 2015. These
survivorship rates then were adjusted to
reflect the forecasted changes in age-specific
migration the district should experience over
the next five years.
These modified survivorship rates
were used to project the enrollment of grades
2 through 12 for the period 2015 to 2020.
The survivorship rates were adjusted again
for the period 2020 to 2025 to reflect the
predicted changes in the amount of age-
specific migration in the district for the
period.
The forecasted enrollments for
kindergarten and first grade are derived from
the 5-to-9 year old population of the age-sex
population forecast at the elementary
attendance center district level. This
procedure allows the changes in the incoming
grade sizes to be factors of forecasted
population change and not an extrapolation
of previous class sizes.
Given the potentially large amount of
variation in Kindergarten enrollment due to
parental choice, changes in the state's
minimum age requirement, and differing
district policies on allowing children to start
Kindergarten early, first grade enrollment is
deemed to be a more accurate and reliable
starting point for the forecasts. (McKibben,
1996) The level of the accuracy for both the
population and enrollment forecasts at the
school district level is estimated to be +2.0%
for the life of the forecasts.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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REFERENCES
McKibben, J.
The Impact of Policy Changes on
Forecasting for School Districts.
Population Research and Policy
Review, Vol. 15, No. 5-6, December
1996
McKibben, J., M. Gann, and K. Faust.
The Baby Boomlet's Role in Future
College Enrollment. American
Demographics, June 1999.
Peters, G. and R. Larkin
Population Geography. 7th Edition.
Dubuque, IA: Kendall Hunt Publishing.
2002.
Siegel, J. and D. Swanson
The Methods and Materials of
Demography: Second Edition,
Academic Press: New York, New
York. 2004.
Smith, S., J. Tayman and D. Swanson
State and Local Population
Projections, Academic Press, New
York, New York. 2001.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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Appendix A: Supplemental Tables
Table 1: Forecasted Elementary Area Population Change, 2010 to 2020
2010 2015 2010-2015
Change 2020 2015-2020
Change
2010-2020
Change
Carmel 8,023 8,400 4.5% 8,700 3.6% 8.4%
Cherry Tree 8,450 8,790 3.9% 9,090 3.4% 7.6%
College Wood 4,451 4,910 9.3% 5,350 9.0% 20.2%
Forest Dale 9,042 9,360 3.4% 9,630 2.9% 6.5%
Mohawk Trails 7,226 7,380 2.1% 7,530 2.0% 4.2%
Orchard Park 12,793 13,040 1.9% 13,330 2.2% 4.2%
Prairie Trace 5,733 6,070 5.6% 6,310 4.0% 10.1%
Smoky Row 6,490 6,980 7.0% 7,390 5.9% 13.9%
Towne Meadow 8,567 8,880 3.5% 9,160 3.2% 6.9%
West Clay 5,987 6,390 6.3% 6,740 5.5% 12.6%
Woodbrook 6,531 6,720 2.8% 6,830 1.6% 4.6%
District Total 83,293 86,920 4.2% 90,060 3.6% 8.1%
Table 2: Household Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census
HH w/ Pop
Under 18
% HH w/ Pop
Under 18 Total Households Household
Population
Persons Per
Household
Carmel 1129 32.2% 3510 8315 2.37
Cherry Tree 1343 49.0% 2740 8383 3.06
College Wood 755 66.1% 1142 3809 3.34
Forest Dale 1217 36.1% 3369 8619 2.56
Mohawk Trails 977 41.0% 2384 6681 2.80
Orchard Park 1438 23.6% 6104 12595 2.06
Prairie Trace 991 52.6% 1883 5727 3.04
Smoky Row 1278 63.0% 2029 6854 3.38
Towne Meadow 1432 49.5% 2893 8578 2.96
West Clay 1091 56.1% 1945 6006 3.09
Woodbrook 1052 40.9% 2571 7119 2.77
District Total 12702 41.6% 30570 82685 2.70
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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Table 3: Householder Characteristics by Elementary Area, 2010 Census
Percentage of
Householders aged
35-54
Percentage of
Householders aged
65+
Percentage of
Householders who
own homes
Carmel 45.1% 14.8% 65.3%
Cherry Tree 55.8% 12.4% 92.2%
College Wood 66.9% 6.0% 95.5%
Forest Dale 41.8% 19.8% 70.9%
Mohawk Trails 45.5% 26.6% 96.3%
Orchard Park 37.3% 22.7% 57.1%
Prairie Trace 59.2% 14.3% 94.6%
Smoky Row 67.5% 6.9% 97.5%
Towne Meadow 55.3% 15.6% 95.2%
West Clay 63.3% 11.3% 87.5%
Woodbrook 47.2% 24.6% 95.2%
District Total 49.6% 17.4% 80.9%
Table 4: Percentage of Households that are Single Person Households and Single Person Households that are
over age 65 by Elementary Area , 2010 Census
Percentage of Single Person
Households
Percentage of Single Person
Households and are 65+
Carmel 30.2% 6.8%
Cherry Tree 9.0% 2.7%
College Wood 7.7% 1.4%
Forest Dale 23.0% 7.1%
Mohawk Trails 14.9% 8.6%
Orchard Park 40.9% 13.2%
Prairie Trace 11.3% 3.7%
Smoky Row 6.3% 1.3%
Towne Meadow 12.0% 4.0%
West Clay 13.1% 5.5%
Woodbrook 15.6% 7.2%
District Total 20.8% 6.8%
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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Table 5: Elementary Enrollment (PS-5), 2018, 2023, 2028
2018 2023 2018-2023
Change 2028 2023-2028
Change
2018-2028
Change
Carmel 461 426 -7.6% 416 -2.3% -9.8%
Cherry Tree 665 621 -6.6% 569 -8.4% -14.4%
College Wood 773 769 -0.5% 723 -6.0% -6.5%
Forest Dale 641 607 -5.3% 561 -7.6% -12.5%
Mohawk Trails 562 615 9.4% 566 -8.0% 0.7%
Orchard Park 663 671 1.2% 629 -6.3% -5.1%
Prairie Trace 598 547 -8.5% 519 -5.1% -13.2%
Smoky Row 669 616 -7.9% 582 -5.5% -13.0%
Towne Meadow 643 651 1.2% 617 -5.2% -4.0%
West Clay 785 820 4.5% 753 -8.2% -4.1%
Woodbrook 463 448 -3.2% 426 -4.9% -8.0%
District Total 6923 6791 -1.9% 6361 -6.3% -8.1%
Table 6: Age Under One to Age Ten Population Counts, by Year of Age, by Elementary Area: 2010 Census
Under
1year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10 years
Carmel 112 103 92 117 123 103 117 107 107 104 115
Cherry Tree 74 77 88 104 108 137 128 140 130 153 188
College Wood 83 90 92 109 110 89 106 91 99 99 81
Forest Dale 86 106 98 116 126 130 116 135 113 145 125
Mohawk Trails 56 67 69 76 94 99 95 121 123 123 109
Orchard Park 127 136 146 166 104 137 144 145 137 130 138
Prairie Trace 70 76 69 103 101 111 121 114 138 122 152
Smoky Row 88 86 117 128 118 141 147 170 135 167 156
Towne
Meadow 88 106 94 105 128 137 149 167 164 176 207
West Clay 91 90 93 110 114 129 136 146 155 140 136
Woodbrook 66 57 93 72 108 104 105 109 132 134 118
District Total 608 654 653 790 766 807 828 852 847 876 909
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
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Table 7: Comparison of District Resident Enrollment by Grade with 2010 Census Counts by Age, 201 2-2017
2010 Census Under
1 year 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years 7 years 8 years 9 years 10
years
11
years
12
years
13
years
Carmel-Clay
School
District
608 654 653 790 766 807 828 852 847 876 909 926 938 820
2018
Enrollment 1153 1265 1196 1326 1315 1356 1360 1341 1265 1325
189.7% 193.3% 183.2% 167.8% 171.6% 168.0% 164.2% 157.3% 149.3% 151.3%
2017
Enrollment 1118 1212 1169 1303 1273 1320 1361 1311 1277 1282 1179
183.9% 185.2% 179.1% 164.9% 166.1% 163.6% 164.3% 153.8% 150.7% 146.4% 129.7%
2016
Enrollment 1100 1156 1138 1263 1228 1295 1355 1360 1279 1297 1163 1245
180.9% 176.7% 174.3% 159.9% 160.2% 160.5% 163.6% 159.6% 150.9% 148.1% 128.0% 134.4%
2015
Enrollment 1030 1104 1101 1249 1188 1268 1339 1341 1304 1289 1177 1210 1265
169.4% 168.7% 168.7% 158.1% 155.0% 157.1% 161.6% 157.3% 153.9% 147.2% 129.5% 130.7% 134.8%
2014
Enrollment 1056 1075 1214 1168 1234 1315 1319 1288 1369 1174 1223 1220 1213
161.4% 164.7% 153.7% 152.4% 152.9% 158.7% 154.7% 152.0% 156.3% 129.2% 132.1% 130.0% 147.9%
2013
Enrollment 1018 1192 1139 1237 1287 1290 1300 1352 1247 1217 1215 1159
155.9% 150.9% 148.6% 153.3% 155.4% 151.3% 153.4% 154.4% 137.2% 131.4% 129.5% 141.4%
2012
Enrollment 1120 1107 1210 1256 1259 1255 1315 1236 1275 1216 1143
141.8% 144.4% 149.9% 151.6% 147.7% 148.1% 150.1% 136.0% 137.7% 129.6% 139.4%
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
15
Appendix B: Population Forecasts
Carmel-Clay School District Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 5424 5370 5360 4960 4740
5-9 7055 6670 6800 6610 6140
10-14 7589 7250 6920 6990 6810
15-19 5914 6450 6130 5830 6010
20-24 2779 2720 2800 2700 2590
25-29 3679 4280 4190 4170 3960
30-34 4256 4700 5280 5190 5130
35-39 6072 5690 6140 6630 6470
40-44 7146 6390 6100 6520 6990
45-49 7729 7000 6290 6070 6490
50-54 6998 7580 6860 6210 6020
55-59 5506 6810 7360 6700 6080
60-64 4431 5180 6480 7020 6410
65-69 2994 3930 4680 5880 6410
70-74 1963 2660 3460 4230 5230
75-79 1476 1720 2310 3030 3710
80-84 1174 1180 1390 1870 2470
85+ 1108 1340 1510 1690 2120
Total 83293 86920 90060 92300 93780
Median Age 39.1 40.3 41.2 42.4 43.6
Births 4010 3920 3680 3600
Deaths 2540 2920 3410 4000
Natural Increase 1470 1000 270 -400
Net Migration 2110 2130 1980 1750
Change 3580 3130 2250 1350
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
16
Carmel Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 529 490 470 430 400
5-9 526 490 460 430 410
10-14 538 520 490 460 430
15-19 533 430 440 410 390
20-24 401 390 310 330 320
25-29 587 570 550 440 440
30-34 567 690 660 620 520
35-39 544 630 740 710 660
40-44 590 580 650 770 730
45-49 708 620 600 670 780
50-54 704 700 610 590 670
55-59 577 690 680 600 580
60-64 424 550 670 660 570
65-69 274 400 530 630 630
70-74 176 260 370 500 590
75-79 136 160 220 330 430
80-84 114 110 120 180 270
85+ 94 120 130 150 200
Total 8023 8400 8700 8910 9020
Median Age 38.0 39.9 41.8 44.1 46.3
Births 460 440 410 380
Deaths 240 280 330 400
Natural Increase 220 160 80 -20
Net Migration 170 150 130 120
Change 390 310 210 100
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
17
Cherry Tree Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 467 470 470 430 420
5-9 685 630 610 570 520
10-14 931 700 660 630 580
15-19 759 830 600 570 530
20-24 311 310 350 280 260
25-29 304 380 380 420 340
30-34 330 470 560 580 610
35-39 523 550 710 780 790
40-44 718 640 690 840 890
45-49 893 720 640 670 830
50-54 844 880 700 630 670
55-59 655 820 860 690 610
60-64 462 600 780 770 610
65-69 240 380 500 670 670
70-74 144 160 280 400 570
75-79 83 120 130 240 350
80-84 57 70 100 110 190
85+ 43 60 70 100 120
Total 8450 8790 9090 9380 9560
Median Age 39.2 40.4 41.5 42.6 44.1
Births 380 370 370 360
Deaths 190 230 290 340
Natural Increase 190 140 80 20
Net Migration 160 170 160 150
Change 350 310 240 170
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
18
College Wood Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 529 420 410 390 380
5-9 554 660 720 680 640
10-14 435 580 690 740 710
15-19 225 360 490 610 670
20-24 81 100 120 110 110
25-29 140 180 160 220 210
30-34 312 200 240 260 320
35-39 544 360 250 300 410
40-44 486 540 360 250 340
45-49 384 460 500 360 240
50-54 251 350 420 500 360
55-59 176 250 350 410 490
60-64 143 170 230 330 390
65-69 79 130 160 220 320
70-74 43 70 130 150 200
75-79 31 40 60 110 130
80-84 26 20 30 50 90
85+ 12 20 30 30 50
Total 4451 4910 5350 5720 6060
Median Age 34.2 33.9 31.8 32.1 34.8
Births 260 240 230 230
Deaths 70 90 120 150
Natural Increase 190 150 110 80
Net Migration 260 300 270 250
Change 450 450 380 330
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
19
Forest Dale Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 552 570 550 520 450
5-9 662 620 630 610 570
10-14 686 700 660 670 630
15-19 631 610 630 600 650
20-24 438 410 390 420 480
25-29 558 510 470 460 440
30-34 494 630 580 530 510
35-39 571 640 770 710 590
40-44 632 610 680 810 730
45-49 757 620 600 670 790
50-54 717 750 620 590 660
55-59 650 710 730 610 580
60-64 531 620 680 700 590
65-69 380 460 560 610 660
70-74 289 310 390 480 550
75-79 205 250 280 340 430
80-84 153 170 210 230 290
85+ 135 170 200 240 270
Total 9042 9360 9630 9800 9870
Median Age 39.4 39.9 41.0 42.3 44.2
Births 450 440 420 410
Deaths 320 360 410 460
Natural Increase 130 80 10 -50
Net Migration 190 180 170 60
Change 320 260 180 10
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
20
Mohawk Trails Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 384 420 450 420 390
5-9 588 500 540 570 530
10-14 686 630 550 580 610
15-19 534 560 500 420 470
20-24 156 120 140 100 100
25-29 177 280 240 260 200
30-34 231 340 440 400 400
35-39 426 390 510 600 540
40-44 560 420 390 500 600
45-49 628 550 420 390 500
50-54 650 620 550 410 390
55-59 566 640 610 540 410
60-64 523 540 610 590 520
65-69 382 460 480 540 520
70-74 259 360 420 450 470
75-79 202 230 310 370 400
80-84 173 160 180 260 300
85+ 100 160 190 210 270
Total 7226 7380 7530 7610 7620
Median Age 43.9 45.3 45.1 44.6 44.8
Births 250 280 260 250
Deaths 290 340 380 440
Natural Increase -40 -60 -120 -190
Net Migration 210 210 200 180
Change 170 150 80 -10
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
21
Orchard Park Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 660 690 710 660 650
5-9 679 660 690 700 660
10-14 677 630 620 650 660
15-19 645 660 610 590 630
20-24 680 670 680 630 610
25-29 1208 1430 1410 1380 1310
30-34 969 980 1200 1200 1180
35-39 935 870 900 1110 1100
40-44 861 790 740 760 980
45-49 927 760 700 640 670
50-54 971 920 760 690 640
55-59 780 950 890 740 680
60-64 668 750 920 870 710
65-69 518 640 710 870 820
70-74 383 490 590 670 810
75-79 368 340 430 520 590
80-84 348 300 280 350 420
85+ 516 510 490 460 480
Total 12793 13040 13330 13490 13600
Median Age 39.7 39.6 39.1 39.2 40.0
Births 650 660 620 620
Deaths 620 620 640 690
Natural Increase 30 40 -20 -70
Net Migration 220 220 210 200
Change 250 260 190 130
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
22
Prairie Trace Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 419 420 410 370 360
5-9 607 650 570 540 490
10-14 639 610 650 560 570
15-19 399 530 530 580 500
20-24 105 90 130 150 160
25-29 116 140 130 150 180
30-34 265 190 220 190 210
35-39 482 340 300 310 280
40-44 640 560 440 400 400
45-49 595 640 550 480 450
50-54 393 590 620 540 460
55-59 295 380 570 610 530
60-64 303 290 370 550 590
65-69 234 250 270 350 520
70-74 110 220 230 250 330
75-79 61 90 190 200 220
80-84 42 40 80 150 160
85+ 27 40 50 80 140
Total 5733 6070 6310 6460 6550
Median Age 38.3 40.6 42.4 44.8 46.4
Births 270 230 210 210
Deaths 130 160 210 270
Natural Increase 140 70 0 -60
Net Migration 190 180 160 150
Change 330 250 160 90
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
23
Smoky Row Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 504 490 490 450 430
5-9 708 640 650 610 560
10-14 760 740 670 680 630
15-19 597 660 650 580 590
20-24 162 150 180 160 160
25-29 134 230 220 240 220
30-34 283 340 420 390 400
35-39 517 520 530 600 560
40-44 677 580 580 580 650
45-49 696 670 570 570 580
50-54 616 660 630 570 570
55-59 393 570 610 610 550
60-64 212 340 520 550 590
65-69 105 200 320 490 500
70-74 56 90 190 310 420
75-79 36 50 90 160 260
80-84 25 30 40 60 130
85+ 10 20 30 40 70
Total 6490 6980 7390 7650 7870
Median Age 35.9 37.3 38.9 41.0 43.0
Births 360 360 330 320
Deaths 100 140 180 240
Natural Increase 260 220 150 80
Net Migration 170 160 150 140
Change 430 380 300 220
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
24
Towne Meadow Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 521 510 500 460 450
5-9 792 630 620 610 560
10-14 959 810 670 640 640
15-19 684 770 660 490 470
20-24 175 220 230 220 150
25-29 195 220 300 270 260
30-34 307 340 360 440 400
35-39 532 570 610 620 680
40-44 793 680 720 750 740
45-49 903 780 670 720 750
50-54 822 890 780 670 700
55-59 644 800 870 760 650
60-64 508 620 770 840 740
65-69 319 450 560 700 730
70-74 172 280 380 490 580
75-79 121 150 240 330 440
80-84 69 90 120 190 260
85+ 51 70 100 130 190
Total 8567 8880 9160 9330 9390
Median Age 40.8 42.7 44.4 46.1 47.3
Births 360 350 320 310
Deaths 220 270 340 420
Natural Increase 140 80 -20 -110
Net Migration 190 190 180 170
Change 330 270 160 60
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
25
West Clay Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 496 510 520 500 470
5-9 703 670 800 790 750
10-14 625 750 720 850 830
15-19 429 490 550 530 680
20-24 121 120 110 140 110
25-29 117 160 170 150 180
30-34 294 250 300 300 280
35-39 569 430 390 440 430
40-44 632 570 420 390 440
45-49 606 630 560 420 390
50-54 470 600 620 550 420
55-59 343 460 580 600 540
60-64 227 290 400 570 580
65-69 120 170 220 330 530
70-74 72 120 160 210 310
75-79 46 60 100 140 190
80-84 56 40 50 80 120
85+ 61 70 70 60 90
Total 5987 6390 6740 7050 7340
Median Age 36.8 37.8 37.6 38.0 39.3
Births 300 280 270 270
Deaths 130 150 180 220
Natural Increase 170 130 90 50
Net Migration 220 240 230 210
Change 390 370 320 260
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
26
Woodbrook Elementary Total Population
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0-4 363 380 380 330 340
5-9 550 520 510 500 450
10-14 653 580 540 530 520
15-19 478 550 470 450 430
20-24 149 140 160 160 130
25-29 143 180 160 180 180
30-34 204 270 300 280 300
35-39 428 390 430 450 430
40-44 556 420 430 470 490
45-49 632 550 480 480 510
50-54 560 620 550 470 480
55-59 427 540 610 530 460
60-64 430 410 530 590 520
65-69 343 390 370 470 510
70-74 258 300 320 320 400
75-79 188 230 260 290 270
80-84 110 150 180 210 240
85+ 58 100 150 190 240
Total 6531 6720 6830 6900 6900
Median Age 42.7 44.2 45.4 46.0 46.8
Births 270 270 240 240
Deaths 230 280 330 370
Natural Increase 40 -10 -90 -130
Net Migration 130 130 120 120
Change 170 120 30 -10
Differences between period Totals may not equal Change due to rounding.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
27
Appendix C: Population Pyramids
McKibben Demographics
5,000 2,500 0 2,500 5,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Carmel Clay Schools Total Population –2010 Census
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Carmel Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
28
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Cherry Tree Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
College Wood Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
29
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Forest Dale Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
McKibben Demographics
600 300 0 300 600
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Mohawk Trails Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
30
McKibben Demographics
800 400 0 400 800
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Orchard Park Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Prairie Trace Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
31
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Smoky Row Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
McKibben Demographics
800 400 0 400 800
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Towne Meadow Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
32
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
West Clay Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
McKibben Demographics
500 250 0 250 500
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Males Females
Woodbrook Elementary Total Population –2010 Census
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
33
Appendix D: Enrollment Forecasts
Carmel-Clay School District: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018
-19
2019-
20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 1030 1063 1111 1011 1049 1045 1044 1032 1019 1007 998 975 954 966
1 1104 1100 1118 1157 1115 1103 1099 1087 1076 1061 1048 1028 1005 984
2 1101 1156 1118 1141 1189 1141 1127 1123 1111 1100 1084 1071 1051 1027
3 1249 1138 1212 1153 1180 1228 1175 1160 1156 1144 1133 1116 1103 1083
4 1188 1263 1169 1265 1188 1216 1262 1207 1191 1187 1173 1162 1143 1130
5 1268 1228 1303 1196 1302 1223 1247 1296 1238 1221 1216 1201 1190 1171
Total: K-5 6940 6948 7031 6923 7023 6956 6954 6905 6791 6720 6652 6553 6446 6361
6 1339 1295 1273 1326 1245 1352 1279 1304 1351 1290 1270 1266 1250 1237
7 1341 1355 1320 1315 1361 1278 1392 1317 1343 1391 1320 1300 1296 1279
8 1304 1360 1361 1356 1341 1388 1313 1429 1352 1379 1429 1355 1335 1331
Total: 6-8 3984 4010 3954 3997 3947 4018 3984 4050 4046 4060 4019 3921 3881 3847
9 1289 1279 1311 1360 1342 1328 1374 1300 1415 1338 1365 1415 1341 1322
10 1177 1297 1277 1341 1367 1349 1335 1381 1307 1422 1345 1372 1422 1348
11 1210 1163 1282 1265 1328 1353 1336 1322 1367 1294 1408 1332 1358 1408
12 1265 1245 1179 1325 1297 1361 1387 1369 1355 1401 1326 1443 1365 1392
Total: 9-
12 4941 4984 5049 5291 5334 5391 5432 5372 5444 5455 5444 5562 5486 5470
Total: K-
12 15865 15942 16034 16211 16304 16365 16370 16327 16281 16235 16115 16036 15813 15678
Total: K-
12 15865 15942 16034 16211 16304 16365 16370 16327 16281 16235 16115 16036 15813 15678
Change 77 92 177 93 61 5 -43 -46 -46 -120 -79 -223 -135
%-Change 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.7% -0.5% -1.4% -0.9%
Total: K-5 6940 6948 7031 6923 7023 6956 6954 6905 6791 6720 6652 6553 6446 6361
Change 8 83 -108 100 -67 -2 -49 -114 -71 -68 -99 -107 -85
%-Change 0.1% 1.2% -1.5% 1.4% -1.0% 0.0% -0.7% -1.7% -1.0% -1.0% -1.5% -1.6% -1.3%
Total: 6-8 3984 4010 3954 3997 3947 4018 3984 4050 4046 4060 4019 3921 3881 3847
Change 26 -56 43 -50 71 -34 66 -4 14 -41 -98 -40 -34
%-Change 0.7% -1.4% 1.1% -1.3% 1.8% -0.8% 1.7% -0.1% 0.3% -1.0% -2.4% -1.0% -0.9%
Total: 9-
12 4941 4984 5049 5291 5334 5391 5432 5372 5444 5455 5444 5562 5486 5470
Change 43 65 242 43 57 41 -60 72 11 -11 118 -76 -16
%-Change 0.9% 1.3% 4.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% -1.1% 1.3% 0.2% -0.2% 2.2% -1.4% -0.3%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
34
Carmel Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 70 91 75 61 67 68 68 67 67 66 67 66 65 66
1 80 67 93 77 69 69 70 70 69 69 68 68 67 66
2 72 86 66 92 79 70 70 71 71 70 70 69 69 68
3 86 74 84 69 93 80 71 71 72 72 71 71 70 70
4 100 91 73 85 70 94 81 72 72 73 73 72 72 71
5 83 109 89 77 88 72 98 84 75 75 76 76 75 75
Total: K-5 491 518 480 461 466 453 458 435 426 425 425 422 418 416
Total: K-5 491 518 480 461 466 453 458 435 426 425 425 422 418 416
Change 27 -38 -19 5 -13 5 -23 -9 -1 0 -3 -4 -2
% Change 5.5% -7.3% -4.0% 1.1% -2.8% 1.1% -5.0% -2.1% -0.2% 0.0% -0.7% -0.9% -0.5%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Cherry Tree Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 108 118 105 99 99 98 97 96 94 93 92 90 88 90
1 112 114 113 99 105 103 102 100 99 97 96 94 92 90
2 103 112 118 117 102 108 105 104 102 101 98 97 95 93
3 116 106 115 121 121 105 110 107 106 104 102 99 98 96
4 120 119 105 121 123 123 106 111 108 107 105 103 100 99
5 134 125 122 108 123 125 124 107 112 109 108 106 104 101
Total: K-5 693 694 678 665 673 662 644 625 621 611 601 589 577 569
Total: K-5 693 694 678 665 673 662 644 625 621 611 601 589 577 569
Change 1 -16 -13 8 -11 -18 -19 -4 -10 -10 -12 -12 -8
% Change 0.1% -2.3% -1.9% 1.2% -1.6% -2.7% -3.0% -0.6% -1.6% -1.6% -2.0% -2.0% -1.4%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
35
College Wood Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 99 111 114 107 109 110 113 113 113 112 111 108 105 106
1 118 99 112 126 113 114 115 116 117 116 115 113 110 107
2 124 118 104 125 135 121 121 122 123 124 121 120 118 114
3 134 128 134 126 136 147 131 131 132 133 133 129 128 126
4 125 136 135 150 136 147 157 140 140 141 140 140 135 134
5 129 127 144 139 156 141 151 162 144 144 142 141 141 136
Total: K-5 729 719 743 773 785 780 788 784 769 770 762 751 737 723
Total: K-5 729 719 743 773 785 780 788 784 769 770 762 751 737 723
Change -10 24 30 12 -5 8 -4 -15 1 -8 -11 -14 -14
% Change -1.4% 3.3% 4.0% 1.6% -0.6% 1.0% -0.5% -1.9% 0.1% -1.0% -1.4% -1.9% -1.9%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.
Forest Dale Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 109 82 100 95 95 94 94 93 92 90 89 87 85 86
1 99 106 97 107 102 99 98 97 96 95 93 91 89 87
2 98 105 107 97 109 104 101 100 99 98 97 95 93 91
3 105 102 104 109 99 111 106 103 102 101 100 99 97 95
4 95 106 112 111 112 102 113 108 105 104 102 101 100 98
5 125 92 113 122 118 119 107 119 113 110 108 106 105 104
Total: K-5 631 593 633 641 635 629 619 620 607 598 589 579 569 561
Total: K-5 631 593 633 641 635 629 619 620 607 598 589 579 569 561
Change -38 40 8 -6 -6 -10 1 -13 -9 -9 -10 -10 -8
% Change -6.0% 6.7% 1.3% -0.9% -0.9% -1.6% 0.2% -2.1% -1.5% -1.5% -1.7% -1.7% -1.4%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
36
Mohawk Trails Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 69 98 94 98 96 96 96 94 92 90 89 87 86 87
1 91 84 100 91 103 102 102 101 99 97 95 93 91 90
2 84 101 83 98 92 104 103 103 102 100 98 96 94 92
3 97 89 100 77 99 93 105 104 104 103 101 99 97 95
4 91 105 92 103 79 102 96 108 107 107 105 103 101 99
5 107 97 107 95 106 81 105 99 111 110 109 107 105 103
Total: K-5 539 574 576 562 575 578 607 609 615 607 597 585 574 566
Total: K-5 539 574 576 562 575 578 607 609 615 607 597 585 574 566
Change 35 2 -14 13 3 29 2 6 -8 -10 -12 -11 -8
% Change 6.5% 0.3% -2.4% 2.3% 0.5% 5.0% 0.3% 1.0% -1.3% -1.6% -2.0% -1.9% -1.4%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.
Orchard Park Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 107 112 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111 110 107 105 106
1 109 115 123 119 125 121 120 118 117 115 114 112 109 107
2 118 107 101 104 111 116 114 113 111 110 109 108 106 104
3 113 119 117 98 105 110 115 113 112 110 109 108 107 105
4 100 101 114 117 97 104 108 113 111 110 108 107 106 105
5 85 100 105 108 113 94 100 104 108 107 106 104 103 102
Total: K-5 632 654 678 663 667 660 671 674 671 663 656 646 636 629
Total: K-5 632 654 678 663 667 660 671 674 671 663 656 646 636 629
Change 22 24 -15 4 -7 11 3 -3 -8 -7 -10 -10 -7
% Change 3.5% 3.7% -2.2% 0.6% -1.0% 1.7% 0.4% -0.4% -1.2% -1.1% -1.5% -1.5% -1.1%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
37
Prairie Trace Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 79 94 94 77 84 84 84 83 83 82 82 80 79 80
1 109 85 94 96 89 88 88 87 86 86 85 84 82 81
2 95 114 95 100 102 94 92 92 91 90 89 88 87 85
3 133 92 120 96 102 104 95 93 93 92 91 90 89 88
4 103 138 101 126 99 105 106 97 95 95 94 93 92 91
5 134 108 134 103 130 102 107 108 99 97 97 96 95 94
Total: K-5 653 631 638 598 606 577 572 560 547 542 538 531 524 519
Total: K-5 653 631 638 598 606 577 572 560 547 542 538 531 524 519
Change -22 7 -40 8 -29 -5 -12 -13 -5 -4 -7 -7 -5
% Change -3.4% 1.1% -6.3% 1.3% -4.8% -0.9% -2.1% -2.3% -0.9% -0.7% -1.3% -1.3% -1.0%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Smoky Row Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 121 84 118 83 95 94 93 92 90 89 88 86 83 84
1 97 129 92 120 98 99 98 96 95 93 92 90 88 85
2 111 104 130 100 124 101 103 102 100 99 98 97 95 92
3 126 117 111 133 104 129 106 108 107 105 105 104 103 101
4 118 127 118 113 136 106 133 109 111 110 109 109 108 107
5 119 118 138 120 116 140 110 138 113 115 116 114 114 113
Total: K-5 692 679 707 669 673 669 643 645 616 611 608 600 591 582
Total: K-5 692 679 707 669 673 669 643 645 616 611 608 600 591 582
Change -13 28 -38 4 -4 -26 2 -29 -5 -3 -8 -9 -9
% Change -1.9% 4.1% -5.4% 0.6% -0.6% -3.9% 0.3% -4.5% -0.8% -0.5% -1.3% -1.5% -1.5%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
38
Towne Meadow Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 89 94 107 88 98 97 97 95 94 93 92 89 87 88
1 107 99 103 116 105 104 103 102 100 99 98 96 93 91
2 97 120 104 107 121 109 108 107 106 104 104 103 101 98
3 119 100 126 111 113 128 116 114 113 112 111 111 110 108
4 117 119 95 126 112 114 131 118 116 115 115 114 114 113
5 133 121 123 95 129 114 117 135 122 119 120 120 119 119
Total: K-5 662 653 658 643 678 666 672 671 651 642 640 633 624 617
Total: K-5 662 653 658 643 678 666 672 671 651 642 640 633 624 617
Change -9 5 -15 35 -12 6 -1 -20 -9 -2 -7 -9 -7
% Change -1.4% 0.8% -2.3% 5.4% -1.8% 0.9% -0.1% -3.0% -1.4% -0.3% -1.1% -1.4% -1.1%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
West Clay Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 104 107 108 119 121 120 119 117 114 113 111 109 106 107
1 119 125 113 125 132 131 130 128 126 123 121 118 116 113
2 114 125 128 123 131 139 136 135 133 131 128 126 123 121
3 133 124 130 133 128 136 143 140 139 137 135 132 130 127
4 128 136 140 138 142 137 144 152 148 147 145 143 140 138
5 134 137 138 147 146 151 144 151 160 155 154 152 150 147
Total: K-5 732 754 757 785 800 814 816 823 820 806 794 780 765 753
Total: K-5 732 754 757 785 800 814 816 823 820 806 794 780 765 753
Change 22 3 28 15 14 2 7 -3 -14 -12 -14 -15 -12
% Change 3.0% 0.4% 3.7% 1.9% 1.8% 0.2% 0.9% -0.4% -1.7% -1.5% -1.8% -1.9% -1.6%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment.
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
39
Woodbrook Elementary: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
K 75 72 78 67 69 69 69 69 68 68 67 66 65 66
1 63 77 78 81 74 73 73 72 72 71 71 69 68 67
2 85 64 82 78 83 75 74 74 73 73 72 72 70 69
3 87 87 71 80 80 85 77 76 76 75 75 74 74 72
4 91 85 84 75 82 82 87 79 78 78 77 77 75 75
5 85 94 90 82 77 84 84 89 81 80 80 79 79 77
Total: K-5 486 479 483 463 465 468 464 459 448 445 442 437 431 426
Total: K-5 486 479 483 463 465 468 464 459 448 445 442 437 431 426
Change -7 4 -20 2 3 -4 -5 -11 -3 -3 -5 -6 -5
% Change -1.4% 0.8% -4.1% 0.4% 0.6% -0.9% -1.1% -2.4% -0.7% -0.7% -1.1% -1.4% -1.2%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel Middle School: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
6 479 425 467 445 384 414 416 424 417 392 386 387 382 377
7 469 481 427 481 458 396 431 433 441 434 404 398 399 393
8 390 464 485 445 491 467 408 444 446 454 447 416 410 411
Total: 6-8 1338 1370 1379 1371 1333 1277 1255 1301 1304 1280 1237 1201 1191 1181
Total: 6-8 1338 1370 1379 1371 1333 1277 1255 1301 1304 1280 1237 1201 1191 1181
Change 32 9 -8 -38 -56 -22 46 3 -24 -43 -36 -10 -10
% Change 2.4% 0.7% -0.6% -2.8% -4.2% -1.7% 3.7% 0.2% -1.8% -3.4% -2.9% -0.8% -0.8%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
40
Creekside Middle School: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
6 418 404 408 426 450 500 465 476 513 497 494 491 486 482
7 428 419 411 412 430 455 510 474 486 523 507 504 501 496
8 494 431 422 416 420 439 469 525 488 501 539 522 519 516
Total: 6-8 1340 1254 1241 1254 1300 1394 1444 1475 1487 1521 1540 1517 1506 1494
Total: 6-8 1340 1254 1241 1254 1300 1394 1444 1475 1487 1521 1540 1517 1506 1494
Change -86 -13 13 46 94 50 31 12 34 19 -23 -11 -12
% Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 7.2% 3.6% 2.1% 0.8% 2.3% 1.2% -1.5% -0.7% -0.8%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Clay Middle School: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
6 442 466 398 455 411 438 398 404 421 401 390 388 382 378
7 444 455 482 422 473 427 451 410 416 434 409 398 396 390
8 420 465 454 495 430 482 436 460 418 424 443 417 406 404
Total: 6-8 1306 1386 1334 1372 1314 1347 1285 1274 1255 1259 1242 1203 1184 1172
Total: 6-8 1306 1386 1334 1372 1314 1347 1285 1274 1255 1259 1242 1203 1184 1172
Change 80 -52 38 -58 33 -62 -11 -19 4 -17 -39 -19 -12
% Change 6.1% -3.8% 2.8% -4.2% 2.5% -4.6% -0.9% -1.5% 0.3% -1.4% -3.1% -1.6% -1.0%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .
Carmel-Clay School District Demographic Study –October 2018
41
Clay Middle School: Total Enrollment
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
2019
-20
2020-
21
2021-
22
2022-
23
2023-
24
2024-
25
2025-
26
2026-
27
2027-
28
2028-
29
9 1289 1279 1311 1360 1342 1328 1374 1300 1415 1338 1365 1415 1341 1322
10 1177 1297 1277 1341 1367 1349 1335 1381 1307 1422 1345 1372 1422 1348
11 1210 1163 1282 1265 1328 1353 1336 1322 1367 1294 1408 1332 1358 1408
12 1265 1245 1179 1325 1297 1361 1387 1369 1355 1401 1326 1443 1365 1392
Total: 9-
12 4941 4984 5049 5291 5334 5391 5432 5372 5444 5455 5444 5562 5486 5470
Total: 9-
12 4941 4984 5049 5291 5334 5391 5432 5372 5444 5455 5444 5562 5486 5470
Change 43 65 242 43 57 41 -60 72 11 -11 118 -76 -16
% Change 0.9% 1.3% 4.8% 0.8% 1.1% 0.8% -1.1% 1.3% 0.2% -0.2% 2.2% -1.4% -0.3%
Blue cells are historical data; Red numbers are current enrollment; orange cells are forecasted enrollment .