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HomeMy WebLinkAbout02 Data SupplementLEVERAGING HOUSING FOR ECONOMIC WELL-BEING Housing for All: DATA SUPPLEMENT JANUARY 2022 image source: National Archives Adrienne Keeling, Carmel Community Services Aimee Jacobsen, Noblesville Housing Authority Alexia Lopez, Carmel Community Services Andrea Davis, HAND Brad Coffing, MIBOR Chris Pryor, MIBOR Cindy Benedict, Stones3 Resources Corrie Meyer, Innovative Planning LLC Courtney Zaugg, Plaka Associates Danielle Carey Tolan, Trustee Westfield Washington Township Denise Aschleman, Noblesville Planning Jen Higgenbothem, Indianapolis MPO Justin Moffitt, Old Town Group Kate Collins, BAGI Megan Vukusich, Fishers Planning and Development Mike Thibideau, Hamilton County Economic Development Corporation Nancy Ramsey, Family Promise of Hamilton County Patricia Gamble-Moore, PNC Traci Kapsalis, JLL Indianapolis Special Thanks to Aspire, Inc BAGI Carmel Clay Schools City of Carmel City of Fishers City of Noblesville City of Westfield Delaware Township Trustee Family Promise of Hamilton County Good Samaritan Network Great Indy Habitat for Humanity Hamilton County Commissioners Hamilton County Community Foundation Hamilton County Council Hamilton County Economic Development Corp. Hamilton County Jail - COPE/TOWER pgrms Hamilton County Tourism Hamilton County Youth Assistance HAND, Inc IHCDA Inclusivity Institute Indianapolis MPO Merciful HELP Center MIBOR Noblesville Chamber of Commerce Noblesville Housing Authority Noblesville Township Trustee Old National Bank Old Town Companies OneZone Pedcor & United Fidelity Bank PNC Bank Prevail, Inc Prosperity Indiana Pulte Home Builders Radiant CDC Salvation Army Shepherd Center of Hamilton County Stones3 Resources United Way of Central Indiana Westfield Chamber of Commerce Westfield Washington Township Trustee Woda Cooper Hamilton County Housing Collaborative Membership Acknowledgments Supporting Organizations Noblesville Housing Authority HAND Hamilton County Housing Collaborative Builders Association of Greater Indianapolis (BAGI) Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of Realtors (MIBOR) Hamilton County Economic Development Corporation Westfield Washington Township TABLE OF CONTENTS 06... Population Trends 08... Income Trends 10... Employment Trends 11... Housing Trends 15... Attainability Trends 18... Data, Assumptions, and Conventions Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being Hamilton County is the state’s fastest growing county by population, and one of the top fifty fastest growing counties in the nation according to US Census data. The demand for housing is likely to increase given the low vacancy rates across the county. Between 2010 and 2019 (the most current year data was available), Hamilton County’s population increased by nearly 62,000 people and added almost 24,000 new households. (ACS, 2019) As of 2019, Hamilton County was home to 323,117 residents and 119,798 households. The majority of households are located in the county’s four largest municipalities – Carmel (36,954 households), Fishers (32,794), Noblesville (23,161), and Westfield (14,217). (ACS, 2019) According to Stats Indiana, Hamilton County’s population is expected to grow by an additional 184,000 people over the next thirty years – that equates to approximately 50 percent growth rate. Much of that growth (approximately 61%) is expected to come from seniors (65+) and older adults (45-64 years of age). (Stats Indiana, 2021) Given this demographic change, housing demand is likely to change as well. Housing types needed to accommodate seniors differ from the larger, single-family homes currently making up much of the production in Hamilton County. POPULATION TRENDS __________________________ HOUSEHOLD POPULATION & AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE The associated chart indicates household population totals in each Hamilton County municipality along with the average annual growth rate between 2011 and 2019. Source US Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Est. Period 2010-2019 Hamilton County is rapidly growing. This growth is unlikely to slow; projections indicate similar growth rates over the next decade. 2.5% 3.1% 2.7% 2.9% 4.3% 1.3% 0.2% 4.4% - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% To t a l P o p u l a t i o n , 2 0 1 9 Av e r a g e A n n u a l G r o w t h R a t e 0.0% Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 7 Total Population Preschool 0-4 School Age 5-19 College 20-24 Young Adult 25-44 Mature Adult 45-64 Seniors 65+ Net New Population Net New Population (2020-2050) + 184,403 + 10,734 + 27,043 + 7,358 + 27,536 + 43,350 + 68,382 -- 2020 343,179 22,439 75,155 17,848 93,145 89,147 45,445 -- 2025 379,478 26,850 76,444 17,378 104,584 95,579 58,643 + 36,299 2030 417,754 32,077 81,260 17,307 112,926 101,679 72,505 + 38,276 2035 452,289 31,653 91,998 16,801 122,903 104,131 84,803 + 34,535 2040 479,841 31,058 100,708 17,760 121,435 113,723 95,157 + 27,552 2045 503,823 31,230 103,920 21,233 117,795 125,419 104,226 + 23,982 2050 527,582 33,173 102,198 25,206 120,681 132,497 113,827 + 23,759 Percent of Growth 6%15%4%15%24%37%-- __________________________ POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE COHORT (bottom) The associated chart indicates estimated future population of Hamilton County, both in total and by various age cohorts. The table also documents the percent of growth each age cohort represents between 2020 and 2050. Source Period Stats Indiana 2020-2050 Hamilton County Carmel Fishers Noblesville Westfield Cicero Sheridan Arcadia Atlanta Non Incorp. 2010 95,835 28,023 25,876 17,898 9,740 2,146 1,042 586 236 10,288 2011 98,959 28,487 26,712 18,634 10,308 2,273 1,044 546 218 10,737 2012 101,203 29,134 27,255 19,659 10,569 2,228 1,001 539 216 10,602 2013 103,234 30,062 27,427 20,467 10,983 2,079 1,111 521 263 10,321 2014 105,578 30,594 28,216 20,952 11,491 1,943 1,277 500 249 10,356 2015 108,253 31,462 29,366 21,262 11,794 1,901 1,162 489 261 10,556 2016 111,443 32,433 30,735 21,796 11,716 1,958 1,176 520 312 10,797 2017 114,282 33,158 31,469 22,130 12,520 1,974 1,159 532 307 11,033 2018 116,982 33,738 32,017 22,532 13,368 2,064 1,196 557 299 11,211 2019 119,789 36,954 32,794 23,161 14,217 2,127 1,145 593 333 8,465 __________________________ HOUSEHOLD POPULATION BY MUNICIPALITY (top) The associated table indicates household population totals in Hamilton County as well as in each municipality. Source Period US Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Est. 2010-2019 Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being INCOME TRENDS Stagnant incomes and concentration of lower-paying jobs creates demand for lower-cost housing options to meet the housing needs of the workforce. Median household incomes ($98,173 in 2019) in Hamilton County are the highest in the state. (ACS, 2019) However, not all Hamilton County households are high earning. Low- and moderate-income households (those earning below 80 percent Area Median Income (AMI), $81,600 for Hamilton County in 2022) often cannot afford housing in Hamilton County. The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) reports 26,670 households earning below 80 percent AMI. An additional 1,965 households earn between 80 and 100 percent AMI. One-third (36,915 households) of all Hamilton County households earn below the area median income. (CHAS, 2013-2017) In Hamilton County, household income is highly related to homeownership. Higher income households are more likely to be homeowners. While the exact reasons are undocumented, higher incomes create greater opportunities to take on debt in the form of mortgages, more likely to have sufficient savings for down payments, more likely to absorb higher cost housing. Higher income households are more likely to have good credit scores needed to access mortgages and other lending products. Less than half (48 percent) of households earning below 30 percent AMI are homeowners compared to the majority (78 percent) of households earning above 100 percent AMI. Approximately three-quarters (78 percent) of all households in Hamilton County are homeowners. (CHAS, 2013-2017) This is a much higher percentage than in nearby Marion County (54 percent) or the US in general, which is around 65 percent as of 2021. 30% AMI 50% AMI 80% AMI 100% AMI 120% AMI 150% AMI 200% AMI 250% AMI $24,480 $40,800 $65,280 $81,600 $97,920 $122,400 $163,200 $204,000 __________________________ AREA MEDIAN INCOME & INCOME LIMITS The associated tables document the area median income set by HUD for the Indianapolis-Carmel Metro as well as the income limits based on family size. Source US Department of Housing and Urban Development Period 2021 1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-person 30% AMI $17,150 $19,600 $22,050 $26,500 $31,040 $35,580 $40,120 50% AMI $28,600 $32,650 $36,750 $40,800 $44,100 $47,350 $50,600 80% AMI $45,750 $52,250 $58,800 $65,300 $70,550 $75,750 $81,000 Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 9 2021 Jobs 2019 Jobs Avg. Annual Openings Avg. Hourly Wage Fast Food and Counter Workers 4,928 5,371 1,010 $10.88 Retail Salespersons 4,707 5,112 663 $15.25 Customer Service Representatives 4,278 4,110 578 $19.89 Office Clerks, General 3,786 3,732 438 $19.17 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 2,975 3,014 381 $17.80 General and Operations Managers 2,918 2,996 254 $63.55 Cashiers 2,777 2,853 482 $11.23 Waiters and Waitresses 2,734 3,280 566 $12.33 Home Health and Personal Care Aides 2,700 2,362 493 $13.49 Registered Nurses 2,327 2,000 266 $35.18 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 2,307 2,245 308 $13.56 Software Developers and Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers 2,039 1,965 157 $47.33 Stockers and Order Fillers 1,944 1,912 243 $15.35 Insurance Sales Agents 1,842 1,770 187 $32.79 Cooks, Restaurant 1,787 1,985 285 $13.12 Accountants and Auditors 1,769 1,638 201 $41.27 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 1,646 1,637 166 $31.58 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 1,599 1,588 182 $22.37 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 1,493 1,499 115 $27.12 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1,480 1,477 147 $21.72 Miscellaneous Assemblers and Fabricators 1,455 1,505 146 $18.44 Teaching Assistants, Except Postsecondary 1,443 1,461 153 $12.57 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 1,414 1,422 143 $48.30 Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel 1,389 1,416 161 $35.99 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,380 1,408 216 $12.96 Childcare Workers 1,359 1,354 232 $12.78 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 1,349 1,325 183 $17.71 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 1,290 1,300 147 $19.00 Construction Laborers 1,217 1,243 126 $20.56 Nursing Assistants 1,187 1,085 165 $15.17 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 1,130 1,198 118 $21.40 Management Analysts 1,117 964 162 $43.01 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Career/Technical Education 1,098 1,155 83 $25.97 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 1,085 1,235 175 $17.87 Project Management Specialists and Business Operations Specialists, All Other 1,083 897 177 $37.04 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1,054 997 132 $24.93 Insurance Claims and Policy Processing Clerks 1,003 955 111 $20.63 __________________________ EMPLOYMENT AND AVERAGE WAGES BY OCCUPATION The associated table indicates employment and average wages by occupation for the top occupations (1,000 or more employees.) Source Period EMSI 2019-2021 Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being EMPLOYMENT TRENDS Continued employment growth linked to housing choices for large and growing sectors of the workforce — healthcare and retail. No longer just a bedroom community to Indianapolis, Hamilton County continues to add and diversify its employment base. Between 2010 and 2019 Hamilton County added 36,517 jobs, with an average of just over 4,000 net new jobs each year. (CLS, 2019) Job growth generates new housing demand, but given the rate of job growth, Hamilton County’s housing supply has not kept pace creating a potential housing shortage. The majority of jobs (96,921) are located in the two largest municipalities – Carmel and Fishers. Noblesville and Westfield have sizable job centers (30,744 combined jobs) but the northern communities of Cicero, Sheridan, Arcadia, and Atlanta lack job opportunities. There are just 1,147 reported jobs as of 2019. It is important to co-locate jobs and housing to reduce commutes and dependencies on personal automobiles given the lack of public transit available in the county. (Census on the Map, 2019) The industries with the highest employment numbers are Health Care and Social Assistance (14%), Retail Trade (13%), and Finance and Insurance (12%). (Census on the Map, 2019) Health Care and Social Assistance and Retail Trade employ many lower wage positions. In 2019, 20 percent of jobs in Hamilton County had annual salaries below $15,000 and another 32 percent of jobs at salaries below $40,000. (Census on the Map, 2019) While a critical part of the economy, these positions may struggle to pay for housing in higher priced markets like Hamilton County. Moreover, these positions are easily found in lower cost markets which may attract workers from Hamilton County. Hamilton County attracts a significant number of commuters (66%) – employees working inside the county but living elsewhere. Approximately one-third (34%) of commuters travel in from Marion County each day. (Census on the Map, 2019) While it is unknown of the reasons why, one potential explanation is access to attainable housing options found in Marion County. Employment and job growth will continue to be a driving factor for housing demand in Hamilton County. It will be important to explore the relationship between workers and their housing needs – looking closing at incomes, job openings, and labor shortages. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 __________________________ TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (top) The associated table documents employment growth in Hamilton County from 2010 to 2020. Source Period Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010-2020 Industry Count Share Health Care and Social Assistance 18,698 14% Retail Trade 17,303 13% Finance and Insurance 16,039 12% Accommodation and Food Services 13,731 10% Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 13,026 10% Waiters and Waitresses 2,734 3,280 EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (bottom) The associated table documents employment in Hamilton County’s top 5 industry sectors and indicates the share of the total employment. Source Period Census on the Map 2019 Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 11 HOUSING TRENDS Hamilton County’s housing inventory lacks diversity. Homogeneous new construction unlikely to support workforce housing needs. Hamilton County has consistently added to their housing inventory over the last decade, adding approximately 3,000 net new housing units annually. As of 2019, the county had 126,526 housing units. This equates to 24,156 net new units created between 2010 and 2019. (ACS, 2019) However, this growth has likely not kept up with housing demand in Hamilton County and the creation of housing has been very unequal across the county. Much of the housing growth has occurred in Carmel (9,895 net new units), Fishers (6,641) and to a lesser extent Noblesville (5,352) and Westfield (4,491). Very little housing construction has occurred in the northern communities of Cicero, Sheridan, Arcadia, and Atlanta. Some have even experienced a net loss of housing. (ACS, 2019) The majority (77%) of housing in Hamilton County is single-family detached. The next largest product type category is multi-family apartments with 10 or more units. This product type accounts for approximately 9 percent of the 2019 housing inventory. (ACS, 2019) Analysis of recent building permits shows this trend is likely to continue. Between 2015 and 2020, single-family (detached or attached) permits accounted for, on average, 74 percent of residential building permits. Between 2010 and 2020, 22,477 single-family permits were issued in Hamilton County compared to just 642 permits for two- to four-family units – which average just 1 percent of the residential building permits issued annually. Multi-family units (5+ family units) vary year to year, averaging approximately 24 percent of residential building permits between 2015 and 2020. (STATS Indiana, 2021) The vast majority of housing inventory in Hamilton County is single-family detached. An analysis of the single- family detached pipeline during the second quarter of 2021 indicates there are 1,682 units awaiting occupancy, 2,426 vacant developed lots, and 10,185 platted undeveloped lots. Carmel, 9,895 Fishers, 6,641 Noblesville, 5,352 Westfield, 4,491 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100% __________________________ NET NEW HOUSING The associated chart shows net new housing between 2010 and 2019 by Hamilton County municipality. Source Period US Census Bureau, ACS 5-year Estimates 2010-2019 Northern Communities, 275 Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being The sales prices of new construction homes have continued to climb across Hamilton County due to many factors including labor shortages and rising material costs associated with COVID-19. The price per square foot increased from $146.34 in the third quarter of 2020 to $167.75 during the second quarter of 2021 – reflecting a $21 per foot price increase. During that same time square footages decreased from an average of 2,703 to 2,683 square feet per single-family detached home. Sales price of single-family detached homes increased by $71,534 between the third quarter of 2019 and second quarter of 2021, reflecting a 19 percent increase. Final sales prices of attached single-family product did not experience the same increases – increasing by just $21,202 or 8 percent during that same period. (Zonda, 2021) Resale prices for existing homes in Hamilton County are following similar trends. Over the last decade (2010- 2021) sales prices for existing homes in Hamilton County have grown by 88 percent, increasing by $170,462 per home. The median sales price of a home at the start of 2010 (January 2010) was $202,000. By January 2021 the median sales price had climbed to $335,000 and continued to climb through 2021, reaching $379,062 in October (the last month data was available.) (BAGI, 2021) Prices vary across the county with the northern communities offering more attainable prices but showing greater percentage increases in price year over year. (MIBOR, 2021) Count Share 1 unit, detached 92,216 77.0% 1 unit, attached 4,672 3.9% 2 apartment units 1,156 1.0% 3 or 4 apartment units 3,175 2.7% 5 to 9 apartment units 6,157 5.1% 10 or more apartment units 10,658 8.9% Total Units 1-Family 2-Family 3-4-Family 5 or More Family 2020 3,807 2,567 70 46 1,124 2019 3,122 2,402 16 24 680 2018 3,005 2,694 14 - 297 2017 3,089 2,457 10 18 604 2016 2,553 2,161 48 87 257 2015 4,047 1,916 26 47 2,058 2014 3,684 1,832 14 90 1,748 2013 3,635 2,046 22 7 1,560 2012 2,137 1,644 28 15 450 2011 1,891 1,408 26 16 441 2010 1,975 1,350 6 12 607 Total Inventory Vacant Developed Lots Future Lots Single-Family Detached 1,682 2,426 10,185 Single-Family Attached 317 431 3,313 __________________________ TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (top left) The associated table indicates building permits in Hamilton County between 2010 and 2020 broken down by the number of units in the structure. Source Period Stats Indiana 2010-2020 INVENTORY (top right) The associated table documents the number of occupied units broken down by the number of units per structure regardless of ownership status. Source Period US Census Bureau, ACS 5-year Est. 2019 FUTURE PIPELINE (bottom right) The associated table indicates the potential housing pipeline given recent permits and residential plat approvals in Hamilton County. Source Period Zonda 2Q 2021 Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 13 In October of 2021, the active inventory was 259 homes in Hamilton County with an average days on the market of 15 days and the median days on market at 4. Furthermore, the available listings are primarily too high value for households earning below the area median income of $81,600, with just 10 homes listed below $200,000. (MIBOR, 2021) While there has been growth in construction of new multi-family rental housing options, occupancy rates nearing 100 percent indicate demand is likely in line with or greater than the supply. There are only four properties in the Hamilton County with average rent per square foot rates below $1.00 with the lowest at $0.87 per square foot for a Class C property built in 1974. Newer Class A residential units rent between $1.47 per square foot to $1.82 per square foot with average rents exceeding $1,500 a month in many cases. Occupancy of stabilized properties is approximately 97 percent indicating very few vacancies regardless of class or condition of the units. (JLL, 2021) Diversity in housing options and choices will continue to be lacking if new construction continues to reflect the inventory already available in Hamilton County. The relationship between what is planned and built and the development standards across the county should be explored to understand what levers could be manipulated to increase diversity in housing choice and price. 3Q 2020 Avg.4Q 2020 Avg.1Q 2021 Avg.2Q 2021 Avg. Price SqFt $/SF Price SqFt $/SF Price SqFt $/SF Price SqFt $/SF Single-Family Detached $390,498 2,703 $146.34 $383,711 2,658 $146.44 $412,213 2,663 $156.77 $445,569 2,683 $167.75 Single-Family Attached $282,905 1,831 $156.53 $278,636 1,754 $160.73 $286,101 1,754 $164.60 $297,321 1,704 $177.73 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Single-Family Detached $374,035 $377,879 $378,253 $385,988 $390,498 $383,711 $412,213 $445,569 Single-Family Attached $276,119 $274,733 $273,619 $274,338 $282,905 $278,636 $285,101 $297,321 __________________________ AVERAGE SALES PRICE (top) The associated table indicates the average price of new construction housing units in Hamilton County over the last four quarters. Data reflects average prices, square footage, and price per square foot of single-family attached and detached products. Source Period Zonda 2Q 2021 AVERAGE SALES PRICE (bottom) The associated table indicates the average price of new construction housing units in Hamilton County between 3Q 2019 to 2Q 2021 for both single-family attached and detached products. Source Period Zonda 2Q 2021 Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being Active Listings Median Sales Price Year over Year Change Median Sales Price Avg. Days on Market Median Days on Market Carmel 59 $480,000 6.2%12 4 Fishers 54 $365,000 12.3%15 4 Noblesville 49 $330,100 17.9%12 5 Westfield 76 $424,690 21.3%15 4 Jackson Twp - Arcadia, Atlanta, Cicero 11 $337,000 46.0%19 10 Adams Twp - Sheridan 3 $226,250 46.0%20 3 Hamilton County 259 $379,900 11.4%15 4 __________________________ REAL ESTATE SNAPSHOT The associated chart shows active listings, median sales prices, change in sales price, as well as average and median days on the market for all product types. Individual statistics for municipalities are provided where available. Source Period MIBOR REALTOR Association October 2021 __________________________ MEDIAN SALES PRICE (top) The associated table indicates the median sales price by month between January 2010 and October 2021. Source Period MIBOR REALTOR Association 2010-2021 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 0 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 0 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 0 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 0 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 1 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 1 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 1 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 1 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 2 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 2 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 2 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 2 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 3 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 3 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 3 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 3 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 4 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 4 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 4 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 4 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 5 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 5 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 5 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 5 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 6 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 6 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 6 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 6 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 7 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 7 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 7 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 7 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 8 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 8 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 8 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 8 1/ 1 / 2 0 1 9 4/ 1 / 2 0 1 9 7/ 1 / 2 0 1 9 10 / 1 / 2 0 1 9 1/ 1 / 2 0 2 0 4/ 1 / 2 0 2 0 7/ 1 / 2 0 2 0 10 / 1 / 2 0 2 0 1/ 1 / 2 0 2 1 4/ 1 / 2 0 2 1 7/ 1 / 2 0 2 1 10 / 1 / 2 0 2 1 Hamilton County Indy MSA Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 15 ATTAINABILITY Stagnant incomes and rising housing cost make housing attainability in Hamilton County difficult for many. Housing costs in Hamilton County make housing attainability difficult for many low- and moderate-income households as well as portions of the workforce who earn lower wages or salaries. Most households earning below 80 percent of the area median income ($65,280) have limited access to attainable housing choices – 1 percent of new construction homes, 2 percent of active listings, and 89 percent of multi-family rentals are affordable to these households. Even higher earning households, those earning around 1.5 times the AMI ($122,400) have a somewhat limited access to housing – 71 percent of new construction, 30 percent of active listings, and 100 percent of multi-family rentals. This analysis does not consider competition, financial ability and health, or product type. (Greenstreet, 2021) Given the higher housing costs, compared to most parts of the Indianapolis Metro, nearly one-third (63% or 16,770 households) of households earning below 80 percent of the area median income are cost burdened. Cost burdened is defined by spending greater than 30 percent of your household income on housing costs. HUD defines housing costs – “For renters, housing cost is gross rent (contract rent plus utilities). For owners, housing cost is "select monthly owner costs", which includes mortgage payment, utilities, association fees, insurance, and real estate taxes.” (CHAS, 2017) 30% AMI 50% AMI 80% AMI 100% AMI 120% AMI 150% AMI 200% AMI 250% AMI $24,480 $40,800 $65,280 $81,600 $97,920 $122,400 $163,200 $204,000 __________________________ AREA MEDIAN INCOME (top) & INCOME LIMITS (bottom) The associated tables document the area median income set by HUD for the Indianapolis-Carmel Metro as well as the income limits based on family size. Source Period US Department of Housing and Urban Development 2021 1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-person 30% AMI $17,150 $19,600 $22,050 $26,500 $31,040 $35,580 $40,120 50% AMI $28,600 $32,650 $36,750 $40,800 $44,100 $47,350 $50,600 80% AMI $45,750 $52,250 $58,800 $65,300 $70,550 $75,750 $81,000 Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being Renters are more likely experienced some level of cost burden. In Hamilton County 73 percent of renters earning below 80 percent of the area median income are cost burdened compared to 55 percent of homeowners with the same incomes. Households living in the northern communities of Arcadia and Atlanta are less likely to be cost burdened (38% and 49% respectively) compared to households living the other municipalities. (CHAS, 2017) However, costs related to transportation and access to opportunity may “cost” these households more in the long term. Without additional analysis it is unclear how those costs compare. Expectedly, lower income households are more likely to be cost burdened. Three quarters (75%) of households earning between $20,000 and $34,999 are cost burdened and one-third (34%) are spending more than 50 percent of their annual income on housing indicating severe cost burdened. A household earning $33,228 (average childcare worker-led household) that spends the recommended 30 and 15 percent of their annual income on housing and transportation would have just $18,275 left over for an entire year’s worth of expenses including medical expenses, education, childcare, food, and savings. This household would not be considered cost burdened. Owners Renters Cost burden > 30% Cost burden > 50% Total Cost burden > 30% Cost burden > 50% Total Household Income <= 30% HAMFI 2,160 1,860 2,855 2,510 2,195 3,055 Household Income >30% to <=50% HAMFI 2,885 1,690 4,025 2,960 1,490 3,335 Household Income >50% to <=80% HAMFI 2,860 395 5,030 2,860 395 5,030 Household Income >80% to <=100% HAMFI 1,405 230 7,095 560 0 3,150 Household Income >100% HAMFI 2,905 315 66,835 410 70 10,525 Total 12,745 4,860 89,185 9,300 4,150 25,100 __________________________ HOUSING COST BURDENED (top) The associated table indicates the number of households meeting the HUD-defined criteria for housing cost burdened at the 30% and 50% levels for owners and renters. Source Period HUD User, CHAS 2013-2017 30% AMI Childcare Worker- led Household 50% AMI 80% AMI 100% AMI Income $24,480 $33,228 $40,800 $65,280 $81,600 % on housing 30%30%30%30%30% assumed housing spend $7,344 $9,968 $12,240 $19,584 $24,480 % spent on transportation 15%15%15%15%15% assumed transportation spend $3,672 $4,984 $6,120 $9,792 $12,240 remaining income $13,464 $18,275 $22,440 $35,904 $44,880 remaining income as %55%55%55%55%55% remaining income as monthly $1,122 $1,523 $1,870 $2,992 $3,740 __________________________ BUDGET ANALYSIS (bottom) The associated chart shows the impacts housing and transportation have on annual household budgets of hypothetical households earning various incomes. Source Period Greenstreet Analysis 2021 Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 17 Earlier in this report, resale and new construction sales prices were discussed and found to be increasing making attainability difficult for many. In general, median housing values, not considering availability in the market, reflect similar trends. Between 2010 and 2019 home values in Hamilton County increased by 25 percent – from $211,200 to $263,300. Similar increases are occurring across the county but are more prominent in the faster growing communities Fishers (27%), Westfield (26%), and Noblesville (25%). (US Census, 2019) Median gross rents are experiencing similar trends with the median gross rent having increased by 30 percent between 2010 and 2019. Rent increases appear more common across the county likely given the lack of variation in rents compared to housing values. Westfield (55%) and Sheridan (37%) showed the largest increase during that time. Most housing units (87%) with households paying rent, have median contract rents below $1,500 – making them attainable to much of the population. However, comparing data from 2010 to 2019 shows that a larger percentage of units (13% in 2019 compared to 5% in 2010) are renting above the $1,500 mark reflecting the growth in median gross rent previously discussed. (US Census, 2019) Housing affordability and attainability will continue to be an issue as housing cost increase faster than incomes and new construction favors towards the higher end of the market. Housing options for low- and moderate-income households as well as workers essential to growing the Hamilton County economy will take thoughtful, strategic actions by a variety of partners and players. Attainable Housing Value Max Monthly Rent % of Total New Construction Starts % of Active Listings % of All Multi-Family Rental Units 30% AMI $73,440 $612 0%0%0% 50% AMI $122,400 $1,020 0%1%5% 80% AMI $195,840 $1,632 1%2%89% 100% AMI $244,800 $2,040 6%6%100% 120% AMI $293,760 $2,448 28%12%100% 150% AMI $367,200 $3,060 71%30%100% 200% AMI $489,600 $4,080 86%59%100% Ham Co.Carmel Fishers Noblesville Westfield Cicero Sheridan Arcadia Atlanta Median Housing Values for Owner-Occupied Housing Units 2010 $211,200 $286,300 $207,600 $167,700 $203,000 $139,300 $93,900 $103,400 $101,800 2019 $263,300 $333,200 $264,200 $209,100 $254,800 $148,000 $128,500 $108,100 $96,700 Median Gross Rent for Rental-Occupied Housing Units 2010 $903 $976 $979 $816 $780 $833 $526 $640 $740 2019 $1,176 $1,207 $1,250 $1,039 $1,207 $907 $719 $802 $809 __________________________ ATTAINABILITY ANALYSIS (top) The associated table indicates attainable housing values and rents for household earning various incomes. Additionally, the table shows the percent of inventory (new construction, active listings, and multi- family rentals) that fall within the attainable housing values. Source Period Greenstreet Analysis 2021 HOUSING VALUES & RENTS (bottom) The associated table indicates values for owner-occupied housing and median rental rates for renter-occupied units. Source US Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year Est. Period 2010-2019 Housing for All: Leveraging Housing for Economic Well-Being Definitions Area Median Income – AMI is the mid-point of a region’s income distribution. This number is set by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). AMI is calculated for the entire Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Metro which includes Marion County as well Boone, Brown, Hancock, Hendricks, Johnson, Morgan, and Shelby counties. Income limits will vary depending on family size. Details on how HUD calculates the AMI for each region can be found on their webpage at huduser.gov. Low- and Moderate-Income Households – a household earning below 80% of the area median income. Housing Cost Burdened – a household spending more than 30% of their annual household income on housing-related costs. Subsidized Unit – assumes all units with federal, state, or local subsidies as reported by the National Housing Preservation Database. Throughout the report subsidized housing may also be referred to as income-based housing which better reflects the needs of tenants versus development community. DATA, ASSUMPTIONS, & CONVENTIONS Household Income Data Median Household Income: $98,173 (2019, Hamilton County) source: US Census Bureau, 5-Year Estimates Median Household Income: $22,415 unadjusted (1984, US) Median Household Income: $69,560 unadjusted (2019, US) source: US Census Bureau, historic datasets Area Median Income: $81,600 (2021, Hamilton County) source: US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) note: AMI is calculated and reflected of the entire Indianapolis-Carmel MSA. AMI is used to determine eligibility for many federal and local grants, subsidy programs, and income-based housing units. Income limits for qualification in income-based units is determined by the number of household members. Number of Workers per Household: 1.3 workers (2019, Central Indiana) source: SAVI note: Data specific to Hamilton County was not available, however, research indicates that workers per household varies. A 2015 study by the US Census Bureau showed that as incomes increase, workers per household increase. National data shows that for the lowest fifth of households by income have just 0.43 earners compared to the highest fifth which have 2.05 mean workers. The middle fifth households have a mean number of workers at 1.36. Housing Data Median Value for All Owner-Occupied Housing: $263,300 (2019, Hamilton County) source: US Census Bureau, 5-Year Estimates Total Housing Units: 135,064 (2019, Hamilton County) source: US Census Bureau, 5-Year Estimates Median Sales Price of Existing Resale Homes: $379,062 (Oct. 2021, Hamilton County) source: MIBOR REALTOR Association Average Sales Price of New Construction Home: $385,970 (2019, Hamilton County) Average Sales Price of New Construction Home: $439,300 (2Q2021, Hamilton County) source: Zonda Greenstreet, Ltd. 2022 l 19 Median Sales Price of New Construction Home: $79,000 unadjusted (1984, US) Median Sales Price of New Construction Home: $321,500 unadjusted (2019, US) source: US Census Bureau, historic datasets Total Multi-Family Rental Units: 28,615 (2021, Hamilton County) Total Subsidized Units: 2,185 (2021, Hamilton County) Average number of Subsidized Units Constructed: 60 (2000-2020 average, Hamilton County) Average number of Subsidized Units Anticipated to Expire*: 33 (2020-2040, Hamilton County) source: National Housing Preservation Database, 2021 note: *Expiration reflects units where at least one subsidy has reached the expiration of its affordability compliance period. This does not guarantee that the unit will leave the affordable housing stock, but does have the potential to increase rates at the owner’s discretion based on compliance of other existing requirements. Other Data Total Population: 323,117 (2019, Hamilton County) source: US Census Bureau, 5-Year Estimates Number of Low- and Moderate-Income Households (earning 80% AMI and below): 26,670 (2017, Hamilton County) Number of Cost Burdened Low- and Moderate-Income Households: 16,770 (2017, Hamilton County) Number of Cost Burdened Household earning below 100% AMI: 18,735 (2017, Hamilton County) source: Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy (CHAS), HUD note: Updated 2014-2018 data became available after the study began but was released with several disclosures. A decision was made to continue using the 2013-2017 data given much of the analysis was already complete. Methodologies Approximate Annual Household Income – To determine the approximate annual household income of multi-worker/earner households, Greenstreet used the following assumptions. Each household, regardless of income, contains 1.3 workers/ earners. All workers in the same household earned the same hourly rate and/or salary. If hourly rates were used, a 40- hour work week was used and a general assumption of 50 working weeks per year. Wage information came from EMSI and reflects 2019 wages, unless noted. Attainable Housing Value – To determine the high end of an attainable housing value, Greenstreet used the following assumptions and varies depending on rental and homeownership. For homeownership, Greenstreet assumed an attainable housing value equal to three times a household’s annual household income. For rental housing, Greenstreet assumed a household would spend 30 percent of their pre-tax income divided over 12 months. Note on Data Sources and Uses Throughout the report, Greenstreet relied on the most current and reputable data sources possible. In most cases, 2019 to 2021 data was used, when possible, with every attempt made to create fair comparisons between unrelated data sources. Please note that given the disruptions caused COVID-19, the US Census Bureau announced for the first time they would delay releasing the American Community Survey five-year data. Data from the 2020 Census was unavailable for this study.